At long last, Joel Embiid has returned. The Philadelphia 76ers center was out for months recovering from an injury to his left meniscus but is now back in action just as the playoff picture starts to crystallize.
With a ton of new teammates to get used to, Embiid's return will be about more than just getting reacquainted with the game (though that is obviously the most important objective). The 76ers' road to a championship is starting with their main driver getting back into the action with a new supporting cast after missing several months. Kyle Lowry, Buddy Hield and Cam Payne will be playing with him for the first time. Nico Batum and Kelly Oubre Jr. missed time at the start of the season, leaving them with only 23 and 26 games playing alongside Embiid, respectively.
It's never easy to win a title, but the 76ers are dealing with uniquely challenging circumstances. Still, the roster is good enough that, so long as Embiid is back to full strength before the playoffs, they can hang with anyone. But there are also some crucial decisions to be made to optimize this postseason run.
Who should start alongside Joel Embiid?
With Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris entrenched as starters alongside Embiid, who should the 76ers put in the other two starting spots?
At the other forward spot, Batum seems likely to be the other starter. Nick Nurse uses him as the main defender for several opposing stars and also values his passing intelligence. Oubre is the other notable option, but because Batum can unlock Embiid in addition to Embiid unlocking him, Philly should try to separate them as infrequently as possible. Among Sixers duos to have played at least 500 minutes together this season, Embiid and Batum are by far the most productive.
Oubre has come off the bench at various points this season and played well, so bringing him off the bench should be fine once the postseason comes around. His tendency to go overboard on offense could very likely hurt the Sixers in the playoffs more than it has helped them in the regular season. The 76ers have to maximize Embiid as much as the big man maximizes his teammates, if not more. Through Batum's high-IQ style of play, that goal is much more attainable.
At the other guard spot, the Sixers could reasonably go with Lowry, Hield or De'Anthony Melton. Lowry has taken the starting guard spot with Hield coming off the bench. But should Melton's back issues be resolved before the playoffs start, Nurse will have to figure out how to add Melton back into the equation, too.
The Sixers acquired Hield, who was touted as the marquee pickup of the whole trade deadline, for his incredible shooting that should help Embiid get better looks and vice versa. Together, they should fit quite nicely. But Hield's weaknesses in other areas could expose him in the postseason, a portion of the NBA season that he has no experience with, so his minutes may not be plentiful.
Lowry may not have a standout skill like Hield does but, even this late in his career, he can impact winning in a lot of ways. On top of being a solid perimeter shooter himself, he can run the pick-and-roll with Embiid well and play sound defense. When the margins for error slim down, experience and smart decision-making are substantially more important. Lowry will be one of the 76ers' key playoff contributors for this reason.
The good news with having so many options is the 76ers can be malleable around Embiid and Maxey, creating lineups suited better to the terrain of each game. This could be especially advantageous for Philly if Nurse is comfortable benching Harris for long stretches, as the veteran forward often plays a lot of minutes despite immense struggles. Embiid will definitely help Harris, his longest-tenured teammate, be more productive. But Nurse may also have to use a quick hook if Harris finds himself in a rut.
Perhaps the starting five will remain the same throughout the playoffs, but each game can feature a different configuration at different times. However, with Lowry and Batum in the fold, the Sixers have two geniuses who can play very well off of Embiid. On top of Embiid making their lives easier, they can do the same for him with timely defensive plays and smart passing.
The Sixers can go with Lowry and Batum at the start of games as they ease the bench into the game alongside Embiid. Then, Maxey can lead lineups that are better suited to get out in transition with players like Melton, Hield and Oubre flanking him. Maxey got plenty of experience as the lead option without Embiid, making him more ready for what playoff defenses will throw at him.
Embiid's supporting cast is better than in years past, featuring more athleticism and playmaking. Nurse is an upgrade at head coach over Doc Rivers. The 76ers have unlocked the best version of Embiid. Is that enough to finally make a deep playoff run?
Can 76ers compete for the championship with Joel Embiid healthy?
Prior to his lengthy absence, Joel Embiid was balling out better than any other player in the league. He had the 76ers playing at a higher level than anyone expected. Any team would be worse off without its top player, but it has become exceedingly clear how much of the Sixers' identity and strength comes from Embiid's talent.
The 76ers have six more regular-season games for Embiid to ramp up. Unfortunately, two of the Sixers' remaining games come in a back-to-back, the second of which he would typically sit when he wasn’t already battling a major injury. That’s one fewer game he almost certainly won’t play. Still, he has a handful of games, the last three of which are at home, to prepare himself.
The 76ers' 27-8 record in games Embiid has played in gave them a winning percentage of 77.1 percent, which rivals that of the Boston Celtics (78.9). It's anyone's guess as to whether Philly could have kept pace with Boston if Embiid avoided a long-term absence, though given how much tougher the second-half schedule has been and the Sixers needing to shuffle the roster up to better suit it for the playoffs, they would probably have settled for a semi-distant second seed at best.
The Celtics have earned the right to be regarded as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA. However, if Embiid is fully healthy, the 76ers will have a fighting chance. Embiid is better prepared against Boston's aggressive defense. Not only is he better, but so is the roster and coaching around him. Stagnation on offense that allows the Celtics to double-team him should be a thing of the past. With his current supporting cast, Embiid should have more help than in years past.
Embiid is also a great defense unto himself. What may have gotten lost in the shuffle of the Sixers' embarrassing loss to the Celtics last postseason was that he was outstanding on defense. As a team, Boston shot just 65.0 percent on shots in the restricted area and 35.9 percent on all other shots in the paint in the six games Embiid played in that series. That first figure is below this season’s average and the second would rank as the worst in the league by over two percentage points.
The Sixers can at least compete at a high level with the Celtics and should be able to beat any other team in the conference, though some matchups are more favorable than others. Obviously, Embiid's health is a major factor that is still in progress. But if he's fully back, Philly is no more flawed than any other East playoff team.
The Milwaukee Bucks have two great stars but are also very vulnerable because of their shaky depth. Their net rating under Doc Rivers doesn’t even rank in the top half of the league since he took over. They don’t stand out noticeably on either side of the ball. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are both great, but the foundation around them is far from reassuring.
With Julius Randle done for the season, the New York Knicks may not have enough shot creation to make a deep run, though they should be a tough out. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic as normally constructed have glaring offensive deficiencies. For the Indiana Pacers, it's their defense. The Miami Heat always lurk as a threat, but their winning formula is always tough to replicate. They, too, might be lacking in offensive firepower.
On paper, the 76ers could have a healthy Embiid by the time the playoffs start and have a better roster around him than they did when he was crushing it earlier in the season. In reality, it's not as simple. The Sixers have to perform a high-wire juggling act to make a lengthy postseason voyage. All that's left to do is see how everything unfolds.
Follow Us
Subscribe