The Philadelphia 76ers are likely heading to the 2024 NBA Playoffs but almost certainly not a top-four seed. Joel Embiid's absence has left the Sixers behind the eight-ball, looking up at a playoff picture where they won’t have home-court advantage to aid them. Matchups will be even more important for Philly in this year's postseason.
Currently, the Sixers are the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They have some tough matchups on deck before facing mostly losing teams to end their season. With four games separating them from the ninth-place Chicago Bulls and Embiid seemingly returning soon, it's unlikely that they will fall out of the top eight. In the meantime, they will continue to hope that Embiid is able to return before the playoffs begin.
Avoiding the play-in tournament, obviously, is something the 76ers want to do. Having to play an extra game (or two) before the real playoffs with that very postseason berth on the line will only make things tougher. Whoever they draw in that matchup should be an easy win if Embiid is back — and having an additional game to get him reacclimated does offer one silver lining — but running any more risk is not a choice draw for Philly.
The most likely playoff path for the 76ers is through the play-in tournament. Realistically, the best-case scenario for the Sixers is to be the sixth seed in the conference, face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, and be in line for a likely second-round matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.
76ers dream playoff scenario: No. 6 seed facing Cavs in first round
The sixth seed, the last spot above the play-in, is there for the taking. The 76ers can put up a strong fight with any conference foe at full health but, especially because it's unclear if they’ll even get back to full health, they’ll need to get a favorable matchup in the first round.
The Orlando Magic, an inexperienced team with an offense that’s bound to face major issues in the playoffs, make for the easiest matchup. However, they will likely not end up in a range where they’ll see Philly in the first round. Among the other top teams, the Cavaliers would be the easiest for Philly to beat.
This season, the Cavs started relatively slowly but then really got going midway through the season, lighting up the competition frequently until injuries to Donovan Mitchell forced him to miss 15 of the team's last 20 games. After getting smacked around in the first round of last year's playoffs, they have to prove that they’re more than a paper tiger. Even though they seem to be better than last year at full strength, they're still a step or two behind other East powerhouses.
The Cavs find success mostly through their defense, specifically through Jarrett Allen's protection of the paint. As great as he is, Embiid has historically dominated him. The team around Embiid is full of players with some combination of skill, size, and smarts to take advantage of the double-teams he'll draw. Tyrese Maxey will be a major handful for the Cavs backcourt to handle, though the inverse is also true.
Cleveland's offense would be in a difficult spot because of Allen and their other big man, Evan Mobley, whose lack of shooting and ability to consistently create their own shots give Embiid matchups to roam off of. Even with the improvements that Isaac Okoro has made as a shooter and the addition of Max Strus (plus other sharpshooters like Georges Niang and Sam Merrill), Embiid being able to patrol the paint without much fear of covering for a shooter would gunk up the Cavs' offense — one that is already below average.
If Embiid isn’t back by the playoffs, the 76ers have no chance to make a deep run. But judging by the fact that they’ve beaten the Cavs twice without the big man (though one win came when Mitchell was out), a matchup vs. Cleveland is their best bet of pulling off an upset.
Assuming that a Sixers-Cavs matchup between seeds Nos. 3 and 6 in the East, the winner will draw the winner of the 2-7 matchup. The Bucks and New York Knicks are vying for the second seed. Philly should prefer that Milwaukee, the seed's current occupant, holds onto it.
Why Bucks are better matchup for 76ers than Knicks
In the second round, the Sixers will have to play the Bucks or the Knicks. Both squads present themselves as difficult matchups but it's the Knicks who, even if they aren’t necessarily better, will be tougher for Philly to beat.
Star talent is generally what matters most in the NBA playoffs, making the team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard appear to be the tougher draw on paper. But Jalen Brunson is in the midst of the monster season and is arguably tougher to guard than Lillard nowadays. Julius Randle is still working his way back from an injury and has to prove himself in the playoffs but he can also give opposing teams problems with his physicality, especially with Brunson to lean on.
Doc Rivers' history of playoff failures looms largely over Milwaukee. Any improvements Rivers has made with the Bucks will have to stack up with the job of Tom Thibodeau, who has gotten the most of the talent he has to work with. That talent includes a lot of players who can be genuine difference-makers.
The Knicks' physicality on the wings presents problems for the 76ers on defense and on the boards. New York dominates the possession battle through vigorous rebounding and has shooters and off-ball relocators that can stretch a defense every which way. While Brook Lopez and Giannis give Milwaukee the size to stand up to Embiid, the Knicks also have big, strong centers on top of bulky, long-armed perimeter defenders — namely OG Anunoby — who can more aptly double-team Philly's superstar.
Antetokounmpo and Lillard are never to be taken lightly but whereas Embiid and Maxey have the capability to go blow-for-blow with them, the roster behind them appears vastly outmatched to the supporting cast around Brunson and Randle. It's unclear which role players from Milwaukee and Philly will be consistently impactful in any given series. Even if the latter isn’t his best self, the Knicks possess a rare level of strength in numbers that will make them a matchup no team would look forward to.
The Sixers will get a tough second-round matchup no matter what. Regardless of whether the Knicks or Bucks are the tougher matchup, the most important thing is for them to avoid being on the Boston Celtics' side of the bracket.
Avoiding Celtics is first priority
This Celtics team isn’t perfect but you’re lying to yourself if you think any other Eastern Conference team is on their level. So long as Embiid is all good, Philly has a fighting chance to make it past the second round against any other opponent. Running into the Celtics in round two, however, is a steeply uphill battle.
The eighth seed means disaster for the 76ers. After playing two games to secure that seed (either after losing the 7-8 matchup or after winning the 9-10 matchup), they'll face the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. They’ll have to play Boston at some point in the playoffs, so perhaps pulling off that upset in round one could serve as the ultimate springboard. But the odds of toppling the best team in the entire NBA — statistically one of the best in league history — are fiercely against them.
The Sixers landing in the fifth seed is unlikely, which isn’t the worst thing. Winning a first-round series where they won’t have home-court advantage only to run into the Celtics in the next round would probably mean yet another second-round defeat.
Every healthy chance Embiid has in the playoffs is especially paramount now that he's in his 30s. There are only a few more chances left for him as one of the NBA's best players to go on the deep run that has evaded him. Any way you slice it, the going will be tough for the 76ers. Still, not every possible draw is created equally challenging.
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