The calendar has turned to March, which means that madness is in the air. As the college basketball regular season comes to an end, conference tournaments across the country are tipping off with many teams looking to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. The teams under the most pressure are those on the bubble, and Michigan basketball is certainly one of those teams.
The Wolverines are in a very tough spot heading into the Big Ten Tournament. They finished the regular season with a pedestrian record of just 17-14, including an 11-9 mark in conference play. This gave the Wolverines the eighth seed in the Big Ten Tournament, but more importantly, places them firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
In Joe Lunardi's latest edition of Bracketology, the ESPN analyst left Michigan outside of the tournament field. Furthermore, the Wolverines aren't even in the “First Four Out,” but rather the “Next Four Out.” Clearly, they have some work to do before Selection Sunday in just a few days.
Without further ado, here are some things Michigan basketball must do to make the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
3. Tighten up the defense
Michigan has rarely had problems scoring throughout the season. The Wolverines are scoring 73.8 points per game, fourth-most in the Big Ten. While their field goal percentage is on the lower side, they are making a solid 34.6% of their three-pointers, tied for sixth in the conference.
On the other hand, Michigan's defense hasn't exactly been top-notch this season. The Wolverines are allowing 69.6 points per game, tied for third-worst in the conference. Their last three games have been particularly bad, The interesting thing is their shooting percentages allowed aren't even that bad, but they're allowing a lot of rebounds and not forcing many turnovers.
If the Wolverines want to make it to the dance and do well in it, they have to tighten up a bit. Their shooting defense could be a bit better, but where they really need to improve is on the boards and taking the ball away. Considering the quality of teams they'll be facing in the Big Ten Tournament, they'll have to be at their best.
2. Finish games better
The last two games of the regular season were a massive missed opportunity for the Wolverines. Michigan faced off against Illinois and Indiana on the road, and played three overtimes between the two games. Unfortunately for Michigan basketball, they lost both games, which badly hurt their Big Ten Tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament resume.
In fact, close games haven't exactly been Michigan's strong suit all season. In games decided by five points or less, the Wolverines have a paltry record of just 3-9, and haven't won one since Jan. 22. Those losses have come against some quality teams, including Purdue, Virginia, Kentucky, and two against Indiana. They've also lost some close games against fellow bubble teams, most notably Wisconsin and North Carolina.
For the Wolverines to make it to the dance, they have to finish better in close games. Sure, winning in blowouts against mediocre teams is good, but close losses to good teams have badly hurt their resume this season. Michigan can't fully make up for those losses, but the Big Ten Tournament still provides some room for redemption.
1. Make it to the Big Ten Tournament Final
Now here's where we'll get into the nitty-gritty of the bracket itself. With the Wolverines on the outside of the bubble, they'll need a big run in the conference tournament to make the dance. While there are other factors at play, making the Big Ten Tournament Final would give them a great chance.
Beyond just an impressive run, this would give Michigan basketball something it's sorely lacking in, Quadrant 1 wins. The Wolverines are a poor 3-11 against Quadrant 1 opponents, but the Big Ten Tournament can help them improve that mark. If they can earn three more quality wins, including one over No. 5 Purdue, then their tournament odds will skyrocket.
That said, there are still other teams to worry about. Michigan should be hoping for teams higher up on the bubble, such as Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and others to lose early on to reduce the competition. Fortunately for the Wolverines, they play one of those bubble teams in the first round of the Conference Tournament, that being Rutgers. Of course, they can bypass this stress entirely by winning the conference tournament, but they have a long way to go before they can even think of that.
Michigan basketball has a lot of work to do to make the dance, but they definitely have a fighting chance. If the Wolverines do get there, though, then they could be a very tough out. Remember, this team made the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed last year, so anything is possible.
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