The 2025 WNBA Finals have delivered on their promise of intensity, drama, and elite competition. The Las Vegas Aces hold a commanding 3-0 lead over the Phoenix Mercury, placing them one win away from clinching their third franchise championship. While the Aces have demonstrated their dominance throughout the playoffs, they now face the opportunity — and challenge — of closing out the series on the road in Phoenix.
Clinching a championship in an opponent’s arena requires not only talent and execution, but also mental resilience and situational awareness. Let's explore how the Aces can achieve this feat in Game 4 and secure the 2025 WNBA title away from home.
The Aces entered the 2025 postseason as a surging powerhouse. Despite a rocky midseason stretch, the Aces closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, finishing with a record of 30-14. Their playoff journey has been anything but easy. In the semifinals, the Aces faced the Indiana Fever in a grueling five-game series that required overtime in the decisive Game 5. Star forward A’ja Wilson delivered a historic 35-point, 12-rebound performance in that contest, while guard Jackie Young contributed 32 points, solidifying her place as one of the league’s most explosive perimeter threats.
The Mercury, on the other hand, entered the Finals as the league’s surprise contender. After upsetting the New York Liberty in the first round and eliminating the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in four games, the Mercury appeared primed for a championship run of their own. They have relied on a balanced approach, led by versatile forward Alyssa Thomas, scoring punch from DeWanna Bonner and Kahleah Copper, and two-way contributions from Satou Sabally.
The Finals began with a nail-biting Game 1 in Las Vegas, where the Aces prevailed 89-86. Game 2 was more decisive, with Las Vegas taking a 91-78 victory behind 60 combined points from Young and Wilson.
In Game 3, played in Phoenix, the Aces narrowly avoided a collapse, surrendering a 17-point lead in the second half before Wilson sealed the win with a buzzer-beating jumper. The 90-88 victory pushed the Aces to a 3-0 lead and brought them to the brink of a historic championship sweep.
Take control early
The Aces’ primary Game 4 mission should be to establish dominance early by getting out to a big lead and maintaining composure throughout the contest. This move would allow them to dictate the pace of the game and prevent the Mercury from feeding off the energy of their home crowd. A strong start is especially crucial in a closeout game on the road, where the mental and emotional momentum can quickly shift the game if the home team builds an early lead.
The Aces must use their offensive execution, especially through Wilson in the post and Young in the midrange, to generate high-quality looks from the opening tip. Defensively, they should focus on denying easy transition points and contesting perimeter shots to limit any scoring surges from Phoenix.
The ability to weather the inevitable runs that the Mercury will attempt is equally important. Composure during these moments is essential, which means minimizing turnovers, avoiding foul trouble, and staying disciplined in defensive rotations. By setting the tone early and staying mentally locked in for four full quarters, Las Vegas can neutralize the pressure of the road environment and position itself to close out the series.
Take advantage of Mercury's vulnerabilities
Before mapping out the Aces’ pathway to victory in Game 4, it is essential to understand the capabilities and limitations of their opponent. The Mercury have reached the Finals on the strength of their defense, depth, and experience.
Thomas is the engine of the team, contributing in all facets — scoring, rebounding, playmaking, and defense. Bonner and Copper provide scoring versatility, while Sabally, before her injury, was a pivotal interior presence.
Defensively, Phoenix has led the postseason in defensive rating, frequently forcing opponents into low-percentage shots and turnovers. Their ability to disrupt offensive rhythm has been a cornerstone of their Finals strategy, particularly in the fourth quarter of Game 3, when they outscored Las Vegas 29-14 in a furious comeback.
However, the Mercury’s outlook is considerably dimmed by the absence of Sabally. The forward suffered a concussion late in Game 3 and has been ruled out of Game 4. This development significantly reduces Phoenix’s offensive spacing, interior defense, and rotational flexibility. Sabally has averaged 19 points and seven rebounds per game in the postseason, and her absence creates exploitable matchups for the Aces.
In addition, Phoenix has shown signs of over-reliance on fourth-quarter rallies, an unsustainable pattern against a well-coached team like Las Vegas. Their 3-point shooting has been inconsistent, and their bench production, while scrappy, has not been sufficient to compensate for starter injuries. The pressure of playing an elimination game at home may energize the Mercury, but it can also lead to rushed decision-making and forced plays under duress.
Play to their strengths
The Las Vegas Aces are, by most accounts, the league’s most balanced team. Their offense is elite, their defense tenacious, and their chemistry unparalleled. Central to their success is Wilson, who has arguably delivered one of the greatest postseason performances in league history. Through 11 playoff games, Wilson has scored a record-setting 291 points, averaging over 26 points and 11 rebounds per game. She is the team’s emotional and tactical anchor.
Complementing Wilson is Young, who has transformed from a secondary scorer into a consistent offensive force. Her 32-point outburst in Game 2, including a Finals record 21 points in the third quarter, demonstrated her capacity to take over games. Point guard Chelsea Gray orchestrates the offense with poise and precision, while Jewell Loyd provides scoring off the bench and perimeter defense.
The Aces’ supporting cast, made up of players such as NaLyssa Smith, Kiah Stokes, and Kierstan Bell, rounds out a rotation that can adapt to different game states. Their ability to play both fast-paced and half-court styles makes them difficult to game-plan against. With Sabally out, the Aces have even more room to attack the paint and exploit mismatches.
Even with a 3-0 series lead and superior personnel, the Aces must navigate several risks. First, complacency poses a real danger. With a championship in sight, there is a temptation to coast or underestimate the Mercury’s desperation. Head coach Becky Hammon must keep her players mentally locked in from the outset.
Second, crowd energy could influence momentum. If Phoenix starts hot, the home fans could shift the emotional dynamics of the game. Las Vegas must respond to such runs with composure, using timeouts effectively and relying on trusted offensive sets to calm the tempo.
Turnovers are another area of concern. The Aces must avoid live-ball turnovers that lead to fast breaks, especially in the second half. Transition defense and offensive rebounding will help control the game’s rhythm.
Finally, should Phoenix find success with small-ball lineups or zone defense, the Aces must be ready to adjust. That could mean playing Wilson at the five, spreading the floor, and increasing the tempo to exploit mismatches.
Why a road clinch is achievable
The probability of a Finals sweep, while rare, is realistic given the current context. The Aces are not only up 3-0 but have also demonstrated their superiority in multiple phases of the game. They have won both at home and on the road, in blowouts and in tight finishes, and the loss of Sabally further tips the balance in their favor.
Additionally, Las Vegas has already overcome significant challenges this postseason. Their Game 5 overtime win over Indiana, featuring overtime heroics, tested their resilience. Plus, their ability to bounce back from a fourth-quarter collapse in Game 3 proves their mental toughness.
Mentally, the Aces have the advantage of playing without elimination pressure. They can approach Game 4 with confidence, knowing that they have multiple opportunities to close out the series. On the other hand, the Mercury must play near-perfect basketball just to survive.
Given the convergence of momentum, matchup advantages, strategic depth, and individual brilliance, Las Vegas is well-positioned to clinch the championship in Game 4.
The Las Vegas Aces stand on the precipice of WNBA history. With a 3-0 lead in the 2025 WNBA Finals and the opportunity to secure a third overall title, they have the tools, the leadership, and the experience to complete the sweep on the road. To do so, they must combine tactical discipline with mental resilience, exploit the absence of Sabally, and trust in the excellence of players like Wilson, Young, and Gray.
While the Phoenix Mercury will undoubtedly fight with urgency and pride, the Aces possess the firepower and poise necessary to withstand such a challenge. If they maintain focus, execute their game plan, and avoid late-game letdowns, Las Vegas can clinch the 2025 WNBA championship in Game 4 and cement their status as one of the greatest dynasties in league history.
