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“Rookie ball” isn't an official basketball term, but it describes how the Washington Mystics are playing. No. 4 overall pick Kiki Iriafen and No. 3 pick Sonia Citron lead all rookies with 146 and 137 points, respectively, while the third-place players are tied at 94.
That combined with Dallas Wings star and No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers' four missed games made Iriafen the unanimous Rookie of the Year favorite in ESPN's latest projection, via Kevin Pelton.
Pelton's write-up is below:
“The No. 4 pick in April's draft has started fast as a pro, shooting a higher percentage (51%) than she did as a senior at USC (50%). Per GeniusIQ tracking, Iriafen leads the WNBA in shots made and attempted in the restricted area around the basket. Many of those have come off second chances. Iriafen is close to averaging a double-double (14.9 ppg, 9.9 rpg), something just three true rookies in league history have done: Tina Charles, Cheryl Ford and Angel Reese.
Despite scoring and rebounding numbers, Iriafen hasn't made much impact as a passer (0.9 APG) or with blocks or steals (a combined five this season). But Iriafen's efficient scoring and domination on the glass still make her the top rookie.
Iriafen's toughest competition has been her teammate. Citron, the No. 3 pick, is averaging 14.0 points while shooting 48.9% overall, 40.5% from 3-point range and 89.3% from the free throw line. No. 1 pick Bueckers might make a push for the award once she's back in the lineup after missing three games because of a concussion and another because of illness. Bueckers was at 14.7 points and 6.7 assists before the injury. Only Caitlin Clark and Skylar Diggins have averaged more than 10 points and six assists as rookies. The four games Bueckers has missed represent 40% of the team's schedule, but they'll be less than 10% by season's end.”
Kiki Iriafen could beat out Paige Bueckers if she continues form
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It's one thing for a rookie's stats to get inflated by getting a lot of minutes on a bad team, but the Mystics are 4-6 ahead of their home date with the Atlanta Dream on Sunday. They're a half-game behind the Golden State Valkyries for the eighth and final playoff seed, and five of their losses have been by single digits, including two by one possession.
Meanwhile, the Wings struggled even with Bueckers in the lineup, as they're 1-9 and at the bottom of the WNBA standings. The 2025 NCAA champion and Wade Trophy winner (best upperclass NCAA women's basketball player) has done her part, as she leads the team in average assists, steals (two), and blocks (one), while she's second only to four-time All-Star Arike Ogunbowale in points. However, Dallas' supporting cast isn't doing its two stars any favors, as the team ranks 11th with a 108.5 defensive rating and 24.4 defensive rebounds per game, via WNBA Stats.
On the other hand, Iriafen leads Washington in rebounds and is second in points despite playing with decorated teammates like Citron, Brittney Sykes (four-time All-Defensive honoree), Shakira Austin (2022 All-Rookie selection), and Aaliyah Edwards (2024 No. 6 overall pick). The latter two players are gradually ramping up their minutes after coming back from injury, so Iriafen has anchored the front-court thus far.
It's not fair to penalize Bueckers for being on a struggling squad, but it will be hard for Iriafen to not be selected as Rookie of the Year if she maintains this pace while the Mystics stay in the playoff race. When two players are putting up historic numbers, team success can be an awards tiebreaker.
