The New York Knicks stunned the basketball world by finishing as the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Tom Thibodeau did a masterful job in his first season as head coach of the Knicks.  Taking over a franchise that won 21 games last season, Thibodeau guided the Knicks to 41 wins with largely the same roster as last year’s squad. New York owned the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. Appearing in their first postseason since 2013, the Knicks will battle the fifth-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the opening round of the 2021 NBA playoffs.

Atlanta is making its first playoff appearance since 2016. After starting the season 14-20, the Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce. Nate McMillan took over the head coaching duties and helped turn around what seemed like a lost campaign. The Hawks went 27-11 under McMillan, finishing with a 41-31 mark.

The Knicks swept the season series against Atlanta—three games to none—giving them the tiebreaker and homecourt advantage for the first-round matchup. Despite New York maintaining homecourt advantage, Atlanta is better equipped to win this best-of-seven series. Let’s examine what gives the Hawks an edge over the Knicks.

1. Atlanta's superior depth

The Hawks are one of the deepest teams in all of basketball. They had nine players score 10+ points per game for the year. De’Andre Hunter (left knee) was limited to 23 games played (19 starts) this season but is expected to remain in the starting five after returning to action in the final week of the regular season. He will remain on a minute restriction moving forward. When healthy, the youngster is a premier 3-and-D small forward.

Star guard Trae Young, swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic, forward John Collins, and center Clint Capela, the NBA’s leading rebounder, round out a starting five flushed with talent.

Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, and Lou Williams all offer substantial scoring off the bench. Gallinari is the team’s unofficial sixth man, while Huerter appeared in 69 of a possible 72 games. Williams, acquired at the trade deadline in a move that sent Rajon Rondo to the Los Angeles Clippers, is the most decorated reserve in NBA history—having won the league’s Sixth Man of the Year award a record three times. Williams is on the tail end of his career, but can still pop off scoring outbursts on a given notice.

While the Hawks are a balanced attack, the Knicks are more of a top-heavy squad led by forward Julius Randle. Randle, a near-lock to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, reached superstardom seemingly out of nowhere. His per-game numbers speak for themselves– 24.1, 10.2 rebounds per game, and 6.0 assists—all of which represent career highs. He managed six triple-doubles, just two shy of Walt Frazier’s single-season Knicks record. Randle shot 41.1 percent from 3-point territory and 81.1 percent from the free-throw line, both career bests.

Outside of Randle, the Knicks rely heavily on RJ Barrett and sixth man Derrick Rose. Beyond that, the talent takes a major dip. Alec Burks and Reggie Bullock are streaky scorers. Nerlens Noel—the only player in the league to average at least two blocks and one steal per contest—is a strong defensive presence, but is a non-factor on offense. While the Knicks are one of the top-notch defensive squads, their 22nd ranked offense is a major source of concern.

2. Hawks' backcourt dominance

22-year-old Trae Young failed to make the All-Star Game this year after starting the contest the year prior. However, the point guard is playing arguably the best basketball of his career as he registered 25.3 points and 9.4 assists. He has excelled at providing big men Clint Capela and John Capella easy looks around the rim.

Atlanta’s other starting guard, Bogdan Bogdanovic, has been on a late-season tear. The fourth-year guard dropped 20+ points in each of his final four games played. He hit the 20-point plateau 20 times in 44 games played, reaching 32 points on two separate occasions. He ended the year on a high note, logging 27 points on 9-12 of shooting in his final regular contest of 2020-21.

Bogdanovic is shooting the ball better than ever before. His 3-point percentage (43.8), field goal percentage (47.3), and effective field goal percentage (60.2) were all the highest marks of his career.

The Knicks will be overmatched by the Hawks’ young guard tandem of Young and Bogdanovic. The point guard position is a particular weakness for the Knicks. Elfrid Payton remains the starter but has struggled most of the year, forcing Derrick Rose to play minutes in the high 20s and often close out games. In fact, Payton played under 20 minutes per contest in April and has not exceeded 20 minutes in a game once in May.

Thibodeau has rotated a few other players at point guard throughout the year, including rookie Immanuel Quickley and former top-10 overall pick Frank Ntilikina. While Ntilikina has been used sparingly of late, the defensive-minded point guard may rejoin the Knicks’ rotation in an attempt to slow down Trae Young.

Rose will see the bulk of the minutes at the point, but Thibodeau has no choice but to throw out all options in a matchup against Young, which presents such a talent discrepancy for the Knicks.

Series prediction: Hawks in 7

The Knicks’ defensive excellence—coupled with Atlanta’s mediocrity on defense—makes this an intriguing series. While the Hawks have considerably more talent as a whole, the Knicks have a roster constructed with guys who know their respective roles. This series seems destined to go the distance, but Atlanta’s juggernaut offense gives it the slightest advantage.