After a hot start in the first month of the season, the Detroit Tigers have returned to mediocrity. Detroit was 18-13 on May 1, and its mark of five games above .500 was its best since the final day of the 2016 season. The team then won just five of 19 games over the next three weeks and has not carried a winning record since.
The Tigers find themselves 12 games back in a surprisingly competitive AL Central and on pace for their eighth consecutive losing season. As frustration grows in Detroit, the team will again be in “seller” mode as the MLB trade deadline approaches. As the Tigers desperately try to build a winning baseball team, here are two bold predictions for the Tigers ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
Tarik Skubal and the rest of the young core stays intact
The Tigers have gone 14-8 thus far in July, sweeping the Cincinnati Reds and winning series against a pair of first place teams: the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers. While this recent success is probably not enough to convince the front office to become buyers, it is a sign that this young core can play winning baseball in Detroit.
Chief among these players is Tarik Skubal. The lefty has struggled with injuries in his MLB career, but in staying healthy in 2024 he has established himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Skubal's 2.35 ERA, 12 wins, and 179 strikeouts all lead the league and make him an attractive trade piece on a sub-.500 Tigers team. Outside of Skubal, Jack Flaherty has been the club's next best player. Yet Flaherty is on a one-year deal and was never a serious part of the Tigers' future plans.
11 of Detroit's top 12 players this season in terms of WAR are under the age of 30; the club must keep this group together and build on th team's strong performances in July.
The club designates Javier Baez for assignment after the trade deadline
The decline of Javy Baez will be studied for years to come. In 2021, Baez had 31 homers, 87 RBI, and a .813 OPS. He did lead the league in strikeouts, but he made his career on being a free-swinger. In 2022, he joined the Tigers on a six-year, $140 million deal and immediately declined in all facets of the game. His OPS was .671 in 2022 and .593 last year before dropping to .484 in 2024 — which would be the among the ten lowest single-season totals in MLB history (among qualified hitters). While Baez's strikeout rate is down, his chase rate is still tied for the worst among qualified hitters.
Tigers fans could at least rest on the fact that Baez was one of MLB's better defensive shortstops, but even that has not held true in 2024. Baez has been worth -1 runs in the field this year while ranking in the 25th percentile in outs among average. His -1.5 WAR is the fifth-worst in Major League Baseball among field fielders, an almost impressive mark considering he has played in just 67 contests.
Javier Baez is not yet halfway through his $140 million contract, but it is difficult for the Tigers to justify keeping a player who is actively hurting the team at the plate and in the field, regardless of their financial obligations. Baez does not carry any value in the trade market, which means the team will wait until the trade deadline passes to mercifully let go of their floundering hortstop.
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