The FedEx Cup playoffs will wind to a close over the next few days at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, as the top golfers on the PGA Tour square off in The Tour Championship.
Two of the previous three winners — reigning champion Patrick Cantlay and 2019 winner Rory McIlroy — are in the field. Dustin Johnson, who won the event in 2020, will not be participating after defecting to LIV Golf earlier this year.
The Tour Championship features a significantly smaller field than other events, with only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings qualifying for the event. The tournament’s unique scoring system, which benefits the players with the most points following the BMW Championship, provides another angle that bettors must consider.
The leader in the FedEx Cup standings, which in this case is Scottie Scheffler, will start out at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at eight-under, No. 3 will start at seven-under, No. 6 will start at six-under and No. 5 will start at seven-under. No. 6-10 will begin at four-under, No. 11-15 will start at three-under, No. 16-20 will start at two-under, No. 21-25 will start at one-under and the remaining five golfers will begin the tournament at even par.
Will Zalatoris, who was set to enter the week at No. 3, withdrew on Tuesday as a result of the back issue that forced him to leave the BMW Championship during the third round. As a result, only 29 golfers will be competing this week.
Here are the 2022 Tour Championship odds for 20 players in the field, courtesy of FanDuel.
Golf Odds: 2022 Tour Championship Odds
Scottie Scheffler + 200
Patrick Cantlay +380
Xander Schauffele +650
Rory McIlroy +900
John Rahm +1400
Tony Finau +2000
Justin Thomas +2000
Sam Burns +2000
Cameron Smith +2000
Sunjae Im +2700
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Cameron Young +4100
Viktor Hovland +5000
Jordan Spieth +6500
Collin Morikawa +6500
Joaquin Niemann +6500
Corey Conners +9500
Hideki Matsuyama +9500
Scott Stallings +9500
Sepp Straka +10000
2022 Tour Championship Favorites Odds
Scottie Scheffler +200: Given that Scheffler will start the tournament with a two-stroke head start, the discussion of favorites picks has to begin with him. However, it is worth noting that he missed the cut at the St. Jude’s Championship earlier this month, and finished three shots back of Cantlay, who won the BMW Championship, last weekend.
Patrick Cantlay +380: Cantlay has history on his side — both in terms of his recent win, as well as the fact that he is the reigning Tour champion. He’s eighth on tour in Strokes Gained: Total, while ranking third in birdie average and one-putt percentage, fifth in approaches from 225-250 yards, sixth in going for the green, 12th in SG: Putting, and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green. His 68.65 late scoring average and 4.42 par five scoring average are the best in the PGA
Rory McIlroy +900: With the Tour Championship being held on the same course annually, McIlroy’s status as a two-time champion is a noteworthy achievement. This is reflected in his +600 odds to have the lowest 72-hole score, which is the lowest of the tournament. McIlroy leads the PGA in SG: Total, while ranking second in SG: Tee-to-Green, third in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 13th in SG: Approach the Green.
2022 Tour Championship Sleepers Odds
John Rahm +1400: While Rahm came up one stroke shy of the championship last year, which marked the smallest margin between the winner and runner-up in four years, his 72-hole score of 266 tied for the lowest of the tournament. The downside of taking him this week is the fact that he will start seven strokes back of the leader, but at +700, he’s second only to McIlroy in terms of lowest 72-hole score odds. He’s finished no lower than eighth in the previous two FedEx Cup playoff events.
Tony Finau +2000: Beginning the event at four-under-par, Finau is an intriguing pick and more than twice the payout of McIlroy of +2000, despite both starting at the same score. He doesn’t have as much Tour Championship history on his side — his previous best finish was a seven-under-par 72-hole total in 2017, which still likely wouldn’t be enough to erase the gap between him and those at the top of the leaderboard. He was arguably the hottest golfer on tour prior to placing 28th at the BMW Championship, though, winning the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic before tying for fifth at the St. Jude Championship.
Final 2022 Tour Championship Prediction & Pick
In terms of value, Finau is a tempting pick at 20-to-1 odds. However, it’s tough to imagine both Scheffler and Cantlay struggling enough to allow him to make up enough ground. Even starting out two shots lower than Scheffler, Cantlay seems to be a quality pick given their recent performance. Scheffler has three top-three finishes in his last 10 events but also doesn’t have a win while missing three cuts during this span. Cantlay, meanwhile, has two wins, two other top-three finishes, and another two top-10 results in his last 10 tournaments.
Final 2022 Tour Championship Prediction & Pick: Patrick Cantlay +380