The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone, so naturally, it's time to start looking ahead to the 2024 draft. There's still an entire season to go until the draft actually happens next April, but it's never too early to start speculating.
Today, we're going to take our best stab at predicting the order for the first round of next year's draft. Keep in mind that this is an extremely early prediction and with so much unknown right now, it's likely the actual order will be very different. This is just our best guess based on what we do know about the upcoming season.
With that said, let's get into the prediction.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is likely in for a very rough season in Year 1 under Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals imploded last season to finish 4-13, and they have lost several key players like edge rushers J.J. Watt and Zach Allen this offseason. Add in the fact that quarterback Kyler Murray will likely miss the start of the season and safety Budda Baker wants out, and you have an easy prediction for the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
2. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston Texans)
Yes, Arizona could very well end up with the top two picks in the draft. The Texans made a very bold move on draft night by trading up with the Cardinals to select edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall. That came at a hefty price, though, totaling four draft picks including their 2024 first-rounder. Unless Anderson and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud can drastically turn Houston around in Year 1, it's likely that Arizona will be getting another very high pick next year.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' disastrous 2022 season had somewhat of a silver lining, netting them their quarterback of the future in Anthony Richardson. Like their division rivals in the Texans, though, it's unlikely that a rookie quarterback will turn the Colts' fortunes around completely. Indianapolis has talent on its roster, but it will take a lot of bounce-backs to get out of the basement.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is entering the post-Tom Brady era, and the 2023 season could be a rough start to that era. The Buccaneers still have a lot of players from their Super Bowl team in 2020, but some of those players aren't what they once more. Their quarterback situation also looks very uncertain, with neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask inspiring much confidence. Expect the Bucs to look for their quarterback of the future with this pick, or wherever they end up.
5. Tennessee Titans
The third AFC South team in the top five, Tennessee is likely in for a rough season as well. The Titans fell apart to lose their final seven games and miss the playoffs, setting an ominous tone for 2023. A sputtering offense with a declining Derrick Henry and not much else plus a defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last year isn't exactly a recipe for success, placing them near the top of the 2024 NFL Draft.
6. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have invested a lot of money into improving their roster this offseason, and given how bad the NFC South is, it's possible they could be much higher in the standings. However, their lackluster quarterback situation greatly limits how high their ceiling is. Unless Desmond Ridder can be a quality starter right away, another season of no playoffs seems likely in Atlanta.
7. Los Angeles Rams
After winning the Super Bowl the year before, the Rams collapsed in 2022 to finish a miserable 5-12. This season may not be as bad, as it's hard to imagine them getting any worse injury luck, but this is just an incomplete team. There's three stars in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, but basically nothing else. With Stafford already 35 and enduring an injury-plagued 2022 season, the Rams are another team that could look for its QB of the future here.
8. Washington Commanders
Washington's situation is very similar to that of Atlanta's: solid overall roster with questions under center. In this case, Sam Howell only started one game last season and while he played well, it's not enough to feel confident in him as a full-time starter yet. The defense should be strong and keep them in games, but this just doesn't look like a playoff team at all.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers)
The Panthers gave the Bears a massive haul to move up and select Bryce Young at No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft, including first-rounders in 2024 and 2025. The good news is that Carolina's roster is much better than other teams with rookie quarterbacks, and thus shouldn't be at the absolute bottom of the barrel. Nonetheless, this likely isn't a playoff team just yet, meaning another high pick is likely heading to Chicago.
10. Green Bay Packers
The Aaron Rodgers era is over in Green Bay, bringing in a new era with Jordan Love at the helm. While Love could be good in the long run, it will probably take some time to get there. There's enough talent on the roster to ease him into the role, but this will likely be a transition year.
11. New England Patriots
The Patriots are far from being a bad team; they actually may be better than some teams behind them on this list. However, playing in a division with three better teams pushing for the playoffs pushes New England lower down in the standings. The questions surrounding the offense, and especially quarterback Mac Jones, don't exactly help matters.
12. Chicago Bears
Chicago may be the most improved team in the NFL heading into next season. The Bears made several big splashes in free agency and got a haul from the Panthers for the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. If quarterback Justin Fields can continue building on his breakout performance last season, now with better talent around him, the Bears could take a solid step forward.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders underperformed last season, losing multiple big leads to finish a disappointing 6-11. If they can finish games better this season, they could finish with a better record than some might think. Other factors, such as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's familiarity with Josh McDaniels' offense and the addition of edge rusher Tyree Wilson, should also help them out this season, even if they don't make the playoffs.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a team that could end up being much higher in the standings than we have them here. Their defense is very strong when healthy, and their offense has potential if quarterback Kenny Pickett takes that next step. However, the potential is just that, and their tough division makes their playoff fate unclear. Don't be surprised if the Steelers actually pick in the 20's in the NFL Draft, but we have them here for now.
15. Denver Broncos
We're predicting a bit of a bounce-back season for Denver. With offensive guru Sean Payton as head coach, Russell Wilson should have a better showing in Year 2 with the Broncos. If the defense remains strong, the Broncos could push for a winning record in 2023.
16. Minnesota Vikings
There's no two ways around it, Minnesota overachieved in 2022. The Vikings may have won 13 games, but most of them were ridiculously close and all of their losses were blowouts. We're expecting a fall back to Earth in 2023, and that means missing the playoffs.
17. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns)
The Texans may have given up their NFL Draft first-rounder, but they still have the Browns' thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade. Cleveland's success this season hinges on Watson bouncing back to peak form, which he was nowhere near last season. The rest of the Browns' roster is pretty strong, but we have them just barely missing the playoffs in this prediction.
18. Los Angeles Chargers
Rounding out the non-playoff teams, we have the Chargers. This isn't so much to do with them, as they still have a very solid roster with a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. It's more to do with how loaded the AFC is, as it's tough to find enough teams for them to jump to make it.
19. New York Giants
The Giants surprised everyone by making the playoffs last season, and we have them barely making it back this time. Their roster still has some question marks, but with the NFC looking relatively weak, they should still compete for the playoffs.
20. New Orleans Saints
The NFC South looks to be very bad again in 2023, but the Saints look like the best team of the bunch. The hope is that Derek Carr will solve their quarterback woes in the post-Drew Brees era and lead them to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
21. Miami Dolphins
Miami's success hinges on Tua Tagovailoa's health, plain and simple. The Dolphins had one of the best offenses in the league last season when he was healthy, but were horrible without him. If they can keep him upright, they have more than enough talent to make the playoffs, and perhaps even do damage in them.
22. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is another team that made a surprising playoff appearance last season and is looking to make it back there. The Seahawks had a strong draft, landing a top cornerback in Devon Witherspoon and receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They may not challenge the 49ers for the division yet, but they have more than enough talent to make another playoff push.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are the best team in the AFC South right now and it isn't even close. Trevor Lawrence took a major step forward in Year 2, and Calvin Ridley joining the fold should help him even more in Year 3. They will be in the 20's in the 2024 NFL Draft.
24. New York Jets
Finally for the Wild Card teams, we have the Jets, who made arguably the biggest splash of the offseason by acquiring Aaron Rodgers. If not for horrible quarterback play, the Jets likely would've made the playoffs last season. Now that they have a fix for that, they're looking to not just break their 13-year playoff drought, but make noise in the postseason.
25. Detroit Lions
This may be the most optimistic outlook for the Lions in many years. Detroit went on an impressive run of form to end last season, and offseason acquisitions like Cameron Sutton and C.J. Gardner-Johnson helped address some of their biggest weaknesses. For the first time in forever, the Lions look to be the class of the NFC North.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has had a chaotic offseason, but eventually accomplished its goal in signing Lamar Jackson long-term. They also got him some new weapons to play with, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and selecting Zay Flowers in the NFL Draft. With Jackson hopefully healthy, anything short of a deep playoff run will be a disappointment.
27. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas made some big acquisitions this offseason, namely receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gillmore. The Cowboys are pushing hard for a Super Bowl, and they have the talent to do so. However, there are just a couple teams better than them in the NFC right now. This spot also marks the beginning of this final stretch where all the picks are the same as this year's, which is very unlikely to actually happen but we'll roll with it anyways.
28. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is looking for answers after coming up short in the playoffs once again. The Bills still have the potential to win it all, but their competition is extremely stiff and they lost key players such as Tremaine Edmonds. Right now, the competition is too stiff to say they're Super Bowl favorites.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are still one of the league's elite teams and we have them making another AFC Championship Game appearance here. Joe Burrow and the offense should be just as potent as ever, while the defense just needs to keep up its underrated play to make another deep run.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
The defending NFC Champions will be in the mix to repeat in 2023. Even for all the talent the Eagles lost, they mostly made up for it with a great draft.
31. San Francisco 49ers
In this projection, the 49ers get their revenge on the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. However, they come up just short in the Super Bowl again. Even if Brock Purdy misses the start of the season, they just need to weather the storm and they should be set for another deep run.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
No surprises here as the Super Bowl champions are on top once again. The Chiefs have lost some pieces this offseason, but were able to replace most of what they lost. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, the Chiefs will almost certainly be competing for rings.
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