Fantasy football is one of the most exciting elements of the coming 2022 NFL season. As the preseason comes to an end, many football fans are gearing up for what should be a thrilling 2022 fantasy football campaign. Now, as the 2022 NFL season approaches and drafts commence, let’s take a look at some possible fantasy football tight end busts.
There are just a few tight ends in the NFL who are major or secondary receiving options for their respective teams. Those players are Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Travis Kelce. Not surprisingly, they are all ranked quite high heading into 2022. Instead, fantasy football owners must sift through a slew of secondary possibilities who are just as likely to fail as they are to succeed.
Let’s look at some TEs who look overrated and, as such, will potentially be busts in 2022. These are tight ends who may rely too much on touchdowns to provide value or perhaps those who have new all-world receivers who will cut into their target shares.
Here are three tight end flops for this season that fantasy managers should be wary of drafting.
Fantasy Football Tight End Busts 2022
3. Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox enters the 2022 NFL season as a surprise fantasy contributor from 2021. Does his outlook for this season reflect his current ADP in fantasy drafts, though? With the Buffalo Bills’ offense slated to be among the best in the league, its leading tight end is expected to play a significant part. Will he replicate his career-best stats from 2021, or will he regress this season?
What is Dawson Knox's fantasy football outlook and projection for 2022, and should you look to draft him at his current ADP?
Dawson Knox has been a popular target in the red-zone for the #Bills. Will that continue in 2022?https://t.co/8JNJHAT49h
— PFN Fantasy Football (@PFNFantasy) August 26, 2022
Knox’s current ADP is not surprising given his 2021 final ranking as a top-12 tight end. He is currently often selected in the eighth or ninth round of 12-team leagues. After finishing sixth in 2021, he has typically been chosen as the 10th tight end off the board.
He does have some red flags, though. His 71 targets ranked 20th at the position in 2021, and there is no apparent avenue for him to increase it to reach the 80-85 target range. If that rise does not occur, there is a high likelihood that he will replicate his astounding 18% TD rate on catches. Another 8-10 touchdown season is not out of the question with a dynamic and powerful offensive that scored 56 touchdowns last season. History, however, implies this is quite doubtful, which is why he will be a fantasy football tight end bust in 2022.
Knox represents a significant risk for fantasy managers due to his ADP being in the top 100. Based on last year’s score at the position, a rather aggressive prediction of 81 targets, 55 catches, 683 yards, and 5-6 touchdowns still places Knox below the top 12 at the position. More realistically, managers should view Knox within the 100-120 range.
Contrary to what some might think, Darren Waller will disappoint fantasy managers this season. Many people currently associate Waller’s name with 90+ receptions and 1,000+ yards. With the development of Hunter Renfrow as a legitimate slot threat, however, and the acquisition of red-zone juggernaut Davante Adams, there’s more competition for targets in Vegas than ever before.
Of course, Waller is one of the league’s finest tight ends. Still, a big dip in output is on the horizon. Volume regression should also follow.
Waller has been the Raiders’ undisputed No. 1 pass catcher for the past three seasons. He has set targets of 24%, 28.5%, and 24%. That’s not going to happen now that the Raiders have acquired Adams. Waller is now the obvious beta behind Adams.
From a fantasy standpoint, more target competition is never a good thing for any pass catcher. At best, it is a nonfactor, but in most circumstances, adding a skilled receiver diminishes the target share of the existing players. The Raiders not only gained a capable wideout, but they also acquired also one of the finest wide receivers in sports.
Unfortunately for Waller, this most certainly means he’ll have a much more diminished role in 2022. Be wary of picking him among the top 100.
1. Mike Gesicki
Some rate Mike Gesicki as a borderline TE1, but he has restricted upside when compared to his position in Mike McDaniel’s scheme and is currently in trade rumors. The addition of Tyreek Hill and pass-catching backs like Chase Edmonds will surely reduce his target share.
Mike Gesicki and his role in the Mike McDaniel offense has been a hot topic of debate for #fantasyfootball managers.
How important is Gesicki’s environment in Miami to his fantasy success?https://t.co/SyTSDPUTrj
— PFN Fantasy Football (@PFNFantasy) August 24, 2022
Gesicki is also coming off his third consecutive poor season. He has always been a reliable fantasy tight end contributor but has never been a game-changing option. In many ways, Gesicki was just another TE. His numbers are just okay. He’s the kind of tight end who records around 10 points every game by pursuing touchdowns. Gesicki is a fantastic athlete, but his abilities haven’t translated as effectively as many fantasy managers had hoped.
His current ADP is around 105th overall, which is far too high. Remember that Gesicki has never averaged more than 10.6 points per game in a single season. His 2022 ceiling should be far lower than that.
Gesicki will play less because of Miami’s upgrades at wide receiver. The Dolphins also have a real pass-catching running back, and a more offensive-minded head coach. Truthfully, Gesicki will block more while on the field. Nobody should expect him to have TE1 statistics this season. He may not even be a high TE2, and that’s why he is our top fantasy football tight end bust in 2022.