The Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers will fight for the last spot in the Eastern Conference's playoff picture. Trae Young's squad will hit the road to face Darius Garland and the Cavs.
Although both teams were very close in terms of their overall record and net rating, they both come into the play-in finale with different amounts of momentum. The Cavs have struggled since the All-Star break while the Hawks have started to figure things out better since then.
Although the Hawks have not been very good on the road this season, they have what it takes to defeat the Cavs and make it to the NBA playoffs.
3 reasons Hawks will beat Cavs in 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament
3. Trae Young is too tough to contain
To put into context how good Trae Young is, consider that in the first play-in game, where his performance was solid at best, he still posted 24 points and 11 assists.
Containing Young is difficult both because of his unreal quickness, shooting and playmaking but also because of his propensity to hunt contact. If he gets going from deep, there's hardly a thing Cleveland will be able to do. Young is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder with the Hawks still fighting for the playoffs after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals last season.
Garland will have to put up a big game in order to keep pace with Young. The Cavs' All-Star is certainly capable of having a big night.
2. The Cavs' offense can't keep up with the Hawks
In the first play-in game, the Hawks beat up on a Charlotte Hornets team that had a putrid defense but the game was close in the first half because Charlotte has an offense that can keep up with them. Atlanta's second-ranked offense should vastly outperform the Cavs' 20th-ranked offense.
Not only do the Cavs play much slower, but they also have fewer weapons around Garland than the Hawks have around Young. Atlanta has a litany of shooters that know how to get open so that Young can deliver them a perfect pass. They also have a fearsome presence in the middle with center Clint Capela.
Garland is far from alone but his key supporting pieces aren't prone to going berzerk from deep. Evan Mobley, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love and Caris LeVert all have some value but they can't keep up with a Hawks team that rains down triples so often.
1. The Cavs can't rely on their defense without Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen has been sidelined since March and his status for the matchup with the Hawks has yet to be decided. There is a chance he will be able to play. If not, the Cavs might find themselves in a lopsided play-in contest.
Cleveland established itself as one of the best teams in the league thanks to its defense. But without one of their monsters in the middle, their defense has been scary in a bad way. Allen's absence has been extremely detrimental.
Mobley has put up a phenomenal defensive season in his rookie campaign but to no fault of his own, he can't keep the Cavs' defense afloat without Allen. Replacing such a great shot swatter is difficult, especially so late in the season. Young will have a much easier time in pick-and-roll situations if Allen is on the sideline.
At full strength, this Cavs team would probably be good enough to avoid the play-in tournament altogether. Unfortunately, they are vulnerable enough to be beaten and miss out on a playoff spot.
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