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The San Diego Padres may be the toughest team to pin down before the MLB trade deadline on August 1st. Normally a team this far back in the standings would be a seller, but that might not be the case.
The steady drum beat out of San Diego is that the Padres still have what it takes to make a run, and there's plenty of evidence to support that. The Padres are actually 10th in the MLB in run differential (+36), so some positive regression in the standings should be expected. It's a big hole to climb out of, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Padres doubled down at the deadline.
Padres GM AJ Preller is never shy about making splashy trade acquisitions, so let's assume the Padres will try to make a run at the postseason again. Wasting brilliant seasons from Blake Snell and Josh Hader, who are both set to hit free agency next offseason, might be tougher to swallow than trading some valuable prospects in the pipeline.
Here are three sneaky MLB trade deadline targets the Padres should consider:
Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, CHC
Cody Bellinger has experienced a career revival with the Cubs, slashing .305/.360/.524 this season while providing his usual solid defense in the outfield. While a left-handed bat at 1B or CF isn't exactly a need, the Padres haven't been getting enough offensive production from that side of the plate with CF Trent Grisham (.219 avg), DH Matt Carpenter (.174 avg), and 1B Jake Cronenworth (.212 avg) all struggling to provide offensive support.
The Padres seem more likely to supplement their current bats with a cheaper right-handed option, but Cody Bellinger is running hot and worth inquiring about. If Chicago's asking price isn't too high, the 28-year-old would represent an upgrade at multiple spots and would add another fearsome bat to the heart of San Diego's lineup.
Elias Díaz, C, COL
The Padres have received virtually nothing from their catchers offensively this season, as Austin Nola (.452 OPS) was recently optioned to Triple-A and Gary Sánchez (.189 avg) has struggled to put the ball in play. Díaz, who is fresh off winning the 2023 All-Star MVP award, could be the best catching option available on the market.
Díaz, 32, will be still on a very reasonable contract worth $6 million next season, which could make him a more appealing trade target for the Padres if they end up missing the postseason and having to play for 2024. Midseason catcher acquisitions are always dicey for pitching staffs, but Díaz controls the basepaths well and brings enough pop to the plate to make it worth the risk.
If Díaz is too expensive to acquire, Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud would be a great fit, as he was an All-Star last year but has taken on a backup role behind Sean Murphy this season.
Adam Duvall, OF, BOS
Bellinger is the biggest name (except for you, Shohei Ohtani) and Díaz is the biggest need, but it's Duvall who represents the best fit for the Padres.
The former Gold Glove winner in 2021 can play every spot in the outfield and give manager Bob Melvin tons of platooning versatility with his right-handed power. While Duvall's acquisition would most likely be just a rental, the 34-year-old is sporting a 123 OPS+, which is the best of his career. Pitching around Tatis Jr., Soto and Machado (the Padres lead the league in walk rate) would become a riskier proposition with a power bat like Duvall, who led the league in RBIs in 2021, waiting on-deck behind them.
The Red Sox would likely need to tumble in the standings, but the Padres should be keeping a close eye on Duvall at the deadline. The fit is just too perfect not to explore.
Other Options
Unlike other deadline shoppers, the Padres probably don't need to hunt down a top-end starter. Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Michael Wacha have pitched well and can be relied upon down the stretch to do the heavy lifting.
Trading for another bullpen arm or two probably makes the most sense, as San Diego's relievers rank 24th in the MLB in WAR this season. A veteran righty setup man, like the Mets' David Robertson or Kendall Graveman of the White Sox, would fill a need.
The Padres probably need to rattle off some wins in the next week to take the direction of a true buyer before the MLB trade deadline. We'll see if the front office is willing to keep the faith.
