The Detroit Lions Week 14 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings has a lot more riding on it than it usually does this time of year. For the first time in a very long time, the Lions still have a shot at the playoffs as mid-December approaches. It's a bit of a long shot, but they are mathematically alive and playing very well as of late.
The Lions have won four of their last five to improve to 5-7 on the season. Their only loss during that stretch came on Thanksgiving when lost a heartbreaker to the Buffalo Bills, 28-25. But they were in that game from start to finish. One of the biggest reasons for their turnaround has been their play offensively.
Detroit is sixth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.3 points per game. They have elite level skill position players that have exploded this year, with Jared Goff playing some of the best football of his career. But this game is going to be a bit of a measuring stick for the Lions.
The Vikings are 10-2 and that's not by accident. I know, I know, they've been blown out by their two elite opponents, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. But you don't get to 10-2 and go 7-0 in one-score games without being a well-coached, solid football team. There will be a ton of talent all over the field Sunday in what should be a fun game to watch.
So, let's get to our Lions Week 14 prediction for their game against the Vikings.
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4. Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff throws 2+ touchdowns
When Jared Goff was traded for Matthew Stafford to Detroit, most people left the quarterback for dead. For the most part, he struggled in his first year with the Lions. But if you really look deep into his play, he was actually quite competent at home. This year, he has taken that to a new level.
The Lions are averaging over 31 points per game at home this season, among the best in the league. Goff, since arriving in Detroit, has 30 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in front of his home crowd. This season alone he has 17 TD's and three interceptions at Ford Field. That's Aaron Rodgers TD-INT ratio numbers. But no one has really noticed.
This week, he'll face a less than stellar Vikings secondary that was gashed by Mike White and the New York Jets last week. The Vikings, despite their 10-2 record, rank dead last in the NFL allowing 283.6 pass yards per game. With weapons all over the field at his disposal, I foresee Goff having another big game here.
Look for him to throw for close to 300 yards and at least two touchdowns Sunday.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown goes nuclear vs. Minnesota Vikings defense
One of the biggest benefactors of Goff's good play has been rising star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Even though you can probably argue it's the other way around. ‘The Sun God,' as he is nicknamed, flew mostly under the radar in his rookie season last year. But he quietly caught 90 balls for 912 yards and five touchdowns.
Early on this season, St. Brown was on the verge of a massive breakout. He had 23 catches for 253 yards the first three weeks of the NFL season. Sadly, he suffered a concussion and subsequently an ankle injury that hampered him during the middle part of the season. But since he got back to full strength in the last few weeks, he's reminding everyone of what he is capable of. He has 37 catches for 431 yards over the last four games.
For all of the reasons why Goff should have a field day above, you can double that with St. Brown. T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings, leaving more targets to be had. St. Brown is looking at another big week and should surpass 100 yards receiving.
2. Lions defense gets shredded on the ground
I fully expect the Vikings coaching staff to realize their defense is at a disadvantage against a hot offense. The best way to keep Jared Goff, De'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and that Lions offense in check is to keep them off the field. That is what Minnesota will attempt to do Sunday.
Dalvin Cook is quietly having another solid season. He is 5th in the NFL in rushing with 927 yards on the ground. Alexander Mattison is one of the more talented backups in the league. Look for the Vikings to run the ball 30 or more times in this game and try to control the clock. I expect Minnesota to finish with north of 150 rush yards in this game.
1. Lions keep the season alive, pull off the upset
This pick is certainly going against the grain. Like I touched on at the beginning, the Vikings are 7-0 in one-score games. They have shown they know how to play good situational football. But Dan Campbell has his team playing too well to overlook. As weird as it is to say, I trust Goff at home more than I trust Kirk Cousins in this spot.
The Lions will pull out a thriller, 31-27.
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