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Contender Series Week 1 continues with a fight between Ilian Bouafia and Neemias Santana in the middleweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Bouafia-Santana prediction and pick.
Ilian Bouafia (6-0) enters Contender Series Week 1 Tuesday with a string of dominant wins, including TKOs over Frederico Komuenha and Carlos Cainan, and a unanimous decision over Paulin Begai. At 6’5”, his striking and reach advantage make him a standout middleweight prospect aiming to secure a UFC contract against Neemias Santana.
Neemias Santana (7-2-1) enters this Tuesday’s Contender Series after a strong run, highlighted by KO wins over Marcos Rezende in March 2025 and Joao Paulo Silva Santos in September 2024. Santana’s power and finishing ability make him a serious threat as he faces Ilian Bouafia at Contender Series Week 1.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Ilian Bouafia-Neemias Santana Odds
Ilian Bouafia: -245
Neemias Santana: +200
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Why Ilian Bouafia will win
- Last Fight: (W) Paulin Begal – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 (5 KO/TKO)
Ilian Bouafia comes into this fight as one of the top prospects coming out of France. Standing at a towering 6’5”, he is not your average middleweight prospect. He has stoppages in five out of his six wins, with all five of those stoppages coming by KO/TKO.
Bouafia may not be the most flashy striker, but he does all the basics very well. His striking is crisp, clean, and packs considerable pop, which was evident in his win against Frederico Komuenha.
The size and reach are going to be considerable in this fight against Neemias Santana and he’s going to want to utilize that to the best of his abilities in this matchup. Since Bouafia keeps it simple, it may help him with battling the forward pressure of Santana in this fight.
With the way that Santana recklessly presses the action, if Bouafia can meet him with his 1-2 combination, there’s a possibility he can land one right on the chin of Santana, putting him away and coming away with the UFC contract.
Why Neemias Santana will win
- Last Fight: (W) Cong Wang – SUB R2
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 6 (6 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Neemias Santana is one of the more head-scratchers in terms of signings to the Contender Series this season. However, his aggressive nature and finishing abilities make him a fun addition to the lineup.
Santana is your typical brawler from Brazil who’s tough enough to hang in the pocket and throw down with just about anyone. His reckless style of fighting has gotten him through his MMA career, and he will be looking to follow suit in this fight against Ilian Bouafia.
This type of style of fighting is needed against a fighter like Bouafia, who has the height and reach advantages in this fight. While it’s necessary, it is certainly a dangerous proposition as he’s going to be eating some shots along the way.
Given Bouafia's history of being allergic to pressure, as seen in his previous fight against Paulin Begai, this will be the key for Santana in this fight. If Santana can utilize his calf kicks, press forward, and take away the reach of Bouafia, he can land his heavy strikes and notch his seventh knockout victory.
Final Ilian Bouafia-Neemias Santana Prediction & Pick
This should be a great scrap for however long it lasts. Ilian Bouafia and Neemias Santana are known for their knockout power, so don’t expect this fight to last that long. Bouafia's intangibles makes him an intriguing prospect for the middleweight or even the light heavyweight division meanwhile, Santana's reckless gameplan and willing to fight fire with fire would make for some fun fights paired up with others in the UFC's middleweight division.
While Bouafia is the more polished prospect and is probably the side the UFC wants to promote, Santana’s ability to make this an ugly dogfight will be the difference maker. Bouafia is one that needs to fight a clean fight, sticking and moving on the outside, as well as countering when Santana comes within range.
For Santana, he needs to close the distance to get on the inside of the reach of Bouafia and make this fight as ugly as he can possibly make it. However, we've seen him come forward with his hands down trying to do just that and get tagged, this is one fighter Santana can't do that against.
After all, if Santana can walk through the straight punches of Bouafia without getting flattened in the process, he should be able to land his heavy strikes, putting Bouafia down and walking away with the UFC contract.
Final Ilian Bouafia-Neemias Santana Prediction & Pick: Neemias Santana (+180)
