The UFC Vegas 109 Prelims are heating up, and we're set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division on Saturday. Contender Series alum Elijah Smith takes on Japan's Toshiomi Kazama in a battle of hungry prospects. Check out the UFC odds for our Smith-Kazama prediction and pick.
Elijah Smith (8-1) is 1-0 heading into his second UFC appearance following a debut win over Vince Morales. He impressed with a decision win on Dana White's Contender Series and followed it up with another unanimous nod during his debut. He'll look to cash in as the card's biggest betting favorite. Smith stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Toshiomi Kazama (11-4) is currently 1-3 inside the UFC since 2023. After dropping his first two promotional bouts, Kazama earned “Performance of the Night” with a triangle choke to finish opponent Charalampos Grigoriou. He'll look for another improbable win in this one. Kazama stands 5-foot-7 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Elijah Smith-Toshiomi Kazama odds
Elijah Smith: -700
Toshiomi Kazama: +500
Over 1.5 rounds: +114
Under 1.5 rounds: -145
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Why Elijah Smith will win
- Last Fight: (W) Vince Morales – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Elijah Smith was billed as a -150 betting favorite during his debut fight, so watching his line skyrocket to -700 against a solid opponent like Kazama says a lot about the type of prospect Smith is and will become.
He fights with an extremely dangerous striking style, hunting for the knockout each time he loads up his punches. Smith plants his feet wherever they may be and overwhelms opponents with pressure while not surrendering an inch in distance.
Elijah Smith is also a tremendous grappler thanks to his wrestling background, taking down his opponents more often than not. He makes great use of the suplex, tossing opponents backwards and landing in top position. From there, Smith wastes no time in ground-and-pounding his opponent en route to a finish.
As the heavy favorite in this one, Smith will have to pace himself against a dangerous opponent who earned a submission win in his last fight. Kazama is very skilled on the ground and with his submission game, so Smith will have to think twice about positioning and ensure he remains out of harm's way during this one.
Why Toshiomi Kazama will win
- Last Fight: (W) Charalampos Grigoriou – SUB (triangle choke, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
After two losses and a rocky start to his UFC tenure, Toshiomi Kazama bounced back in a huge way with his recent submission win. He managed top position in a fight he was losing on the feet, so it's clear Kazama can't be doubted despite the lopsided betting odds.
His toughness has also been on display even during his losses, so expect him to give Smith his toughest look to-date in this upcoming matchup.
On the feet, Kazama is actually the much more accurate striker, landing on 53% of his attempts to Smith's 41%. The discrepancy in this fight may come once Kazama is forced to the ground, but his 66% takedown defense should give him a slight chance in keeping things on feet.
If he's taken down, Kazama should do everything in his power to get back up or reverse position on the ground.
While he may be slightly undersized during this bout, Kazama does a great job of quickly closing the distance with his quick movements and ability to close the distance. If he's able to properly protect himself from the attacks of Smith, Kazama should be able to land significant counterstrikes when playing off Smith's mistakes.
Final Elijah Smith-Toshiomi Kazama prediction & pick
Elijah Smith comes into this fight as the card's biggest betting favorite, and while Toshiomi Kazama is certainly his toughest test up to this point, the skills of Smith have become apparent over his last two fights. On the feet, we could see Kazama finding some success if he's able to methodically close the distance and counter on his opponent.
However, the real discrepancy during this fight lies in the grappling as Elijah Smith has been both active and successful with his wrestling game. If Kazama is forced to the ground, he could have some trouble dealing with the aggression and top pressure of Smith.
Nevertheless, we have to like Elijah Smith to emerge from this fight victorious thanks to his multifaceted skill set. We also haven't seen him truly compromised during a fight, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles adversity, if any, during this bout. Let's roll with the card's biggest betting favorite in this one.
Final Elijah Smith-Toshiomi Kazama Prediction & Pick: Elijah Smith (-700); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-145)
