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UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues on the main card with a fight between Eryk Anders and Christian Leroy Duncan in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Anders-Duncan prediction and pick.
Eryk Anders (17-8) enters this weekend’s matchup against Christian Leroy Duncan riding momentum from a late 2024 KO win over Chris Weidman. Anders has shown striking power and durability in recent fights, including a unanimous decision over Jamie Pickett earlier in 2024. Now, Anders aims to secure another decisive victory at UFC Vegas 109.
Christian Leroy Duncan (11-2) comes into this weekend’s matchup against Eryk Anders after a solid recent run highlighted by TKO wins over Claudio Ribeiro, Denis Tiuliulin, and a most recent dominant decision against Andrey Pulyaev back in March. He looks to leverage his striking power and improved grappling as he faces Anders at UFC Vegas 109, seeking to extend his winning streak and keep his momentum going.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Eryk Anders-Christian Leroy Duncan odds
Eryk Anders: +390
Christian Leroy Duncan: -520
Over 2.5 Rounds: -188
Under 2.5 Rounds: +145
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Why Eryk Anders will win
- Last Fight: (W) Chris Weidman – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 (10 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Eryk Anders holds key advantages over Christian Leroy Duncan heading into UFC Vegas 109 despite being the underdog. Anders’ experience is substantial, boasting 25 professional fights compared to Duncan’s 13. This depth of experience often translates to composure and fight IQ under pressure.
Anders is known for his powerful striking and knockout ability, having recently defeated Chris Weidman via second-round TKO. His aggressive style and precise punches can disrupt Duncan’s rhythm and force mistakes. Anders also has solid takedown defense, around 80%, which will help him keep the fight standing where he excels.
While Duncan has notable physical advantages with reach and youth, Anders’ durability and tactical approach may neutralize this. Anders’ pressure striking and ability to mix in sneaky takedown attempts could give him the edge in controlling pace. His previous wins show he can finish fights, increasing his threat level.
Duncan’s recent volume striking is higher, but Anders’ experience against top-level opponents gives him the tools to weather initial storms and capitalize on openings. Anders aims to impose his will early and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges. Overall, Anders’ power, resilience, and savvy make him a strong contender to upset Duncan with a late finish or decision victory.
Why Christian Leroy Duncan will win
- Last Fight: (W) Andrey Pulyaev – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Christian Leroy Duncan holds key advantages against Eryk Anders at UFC Vegas 109 that make him the likely winner. Duncan's youth and physical attributes favor him; at 30 years old, he is in his prime compared to the 38-year-old Anders. His height and four-inch reach advantage provide significant leverage for landing strikes and controlling distance.
Duncan’s striking output is notably higher, averaging 4.8 significant strikes per minute versus Anders’ 3.5, enabling him to maintain pressure and score consistently. As a switch stance fighter, Duncan can create angles and confuse Anders, who typically fights southpaw. This versatility on the feet gives Duncan tactical superiority.
Though Anders possesses solid takedown defense and knockout power, Duncan’s wrestling and grappling skills, honed at Jackson Wink MMA Academy, provide a well-rounded threat. Duncan’s recent KO victories show his ability to capitalize on openings, especially against opponents who rely heavily on striking.
Anders’ advanced age and wear may result in slower reactions and reduced durability, which Duncan can exploit by mixing strikes and grappling attacks. If Duncan can effectively impose his reach and pressure, while avoiding significant damage early, he will outpoint or finish Anders, securing a decisive victory at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Eryk Anders-Christian Leroy Duncan prediction & pick
Christian Leroy Duncan enters UFC Vegas 109 as the strong favorite against veteran Eryk Anders, reflecting his youth, sharp striking, and improving fight IQ. Duncan combines elite striking accuracy (60%) with a solid takedown defense (72%), making him difficult to control or outstrike.
Duncan’s recent performances include multiple second-round stoppages and a unanimous decision win, showcasing improved pacing and tactical maturity. His physical attributes—a slight height and significant reach advantage—allow him to manage distance and pick his shots effectively, complicating Anders’s pressure style.
Eryk Anders, while experienced and possessing notable knockout power, faces challenges against Duncan's volume and precision striking. Anders’s strong takedown defense (80%) and veteran toughness could keep the fight competitive, but his age (37) and slightly declining cardio may hinder his ability to sustain pace against the younger, faster Duncan.
The fight will likely see Duncan using his speed and reach advantage to outpoint Anders, who must capitalize early if he hopes to utilize his power. Ultimately, Duncan’s technical striking and consistent recent performances set him up for a decision or late-round stoppage victory at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Eryk Anders-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan (-520), Over 2.5 Rounds (-188)
