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UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues with the main event fight between Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Dolidze-Hernandez prediction and pick.
Roman Dolidze (5-3) enters this weekend’s matchup against Anthony Hernandez riding a three-fight winning streak, including a TKO over Kevin Holland and a recent decision win against former title challenger Marvin Vettori. Dolidze has combined precise striking with tough grappling to build momentum heading into UFC Vegas 109.
Anthony Hernandez (14-2) enters this weekend’s UFC Vegas 109 matchup against Roman Dolidze off strong recent performances. He secured a unanimous decision win over Brendan Allen back in February and displayed finishing power with a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira in October 2024. Hernandez aims to extend his winning streak and move closer to title contention with a victory this weekend.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez odds
Roman Dolidze: +250
Anthony Hernandez: -310
Over 3.5 Rounds: -130
Under 3.5 Rounds: +100
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Why Roman Dolidze will win
- Last Fight: (W) Marvin Vettori – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Roman Dolidze holds significant advantages over Anthony Hernandez heading into UFC Vegas 109 that could lead to his victory. Dolidze’s combination of elite grappling and knockout power makes him a formidable threat. Though Hernandez favors submissions, Dolidze’s grappling defense and ability to land heavy strikes give him the edge in both domains.
At 37 years old, Dolidze is in peak physical condition and boasts quickness on his feet, aided by a lean frame despite his 6’3” height. His recent performances, including a TKO win over Kevin Holland and outstriking Marvin Vettori with a striking volume nearly double Vettori's, highlight his durability and precision. While Dolidze’s takedown defense is not the strongest (around 33%), he has shown the ability to escape submissions and maintain control, preventing Hernandez from capitalizing on his submission skills.
Hernandez is the betting favorite with a record of 14-2-1, known for his striking volume and submission threats. However, his striking power may not be enough to finish Dolidze, who has never been knocked out and endures lengthy, high-pressure fights.
Dolidze’s balance of grappling and striking, combined with his stamina through five-round fights, suggests he can maintain pressure, capitalize on openings, and frustrate Hernandez. This tactical blend positions Roman Dolidze well to upset the odds and secure a decision or possibly a late finish at UFC Vegas 109.
Why Anthony Hernandez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Brendan Allen – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 11 (3 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Anthony Hernandez holds key advantages over Roman Dolidze heading into UFC Vegas 109 that make him a strong contender for victory. Hernandez’s youth and physical prime at 31 years old contrast with Dolidze’s 37 years, giving Hernandez potential advantages in speed, stamina, and recovery through the fight. His height of 6'0″ and reach of 75 inches allow him to control distance and impose his striking effectively.
Hernandez’s striking is precise and high-volume, averaging about 4.8 significant strikes per minute, which can maintain pressure and score consistently throughout the rounds. He is known for his finishing ability, evidenced by a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira and a unanimous decision win over Brendan Allen in early 2025. His improved fight IQ and tactical growth help him capitalize on opponent mistakes, integrating well-rounded grappling with striking.
Dolidze’s strengths lie in power and grappling, but Hernandez’s solid takedown defense and ability to avoid being controlled on the ground reduce Dolidze’s impact in that area. Hernandez’s experience with high-pressure fights and ability to sustain pace against tough opponents suggest he will outwork Dolidze in exchanges and manage the fight’s tempo.
If Hernandez can maintain range, avoid Dolidze’s power shots, and mix striking with takedown threats, he is poised to secure a decision or late finish win at UFC Vegas 109. His momentum and skill evolution position him to overcome Dolidze’s pressure style in a compelling middleweight clash.
Final Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez prediction & pick
Anthony Hernandez enters UFC Vegas 109 as the favorite against Roman Dolidze, riding an impressive seven-fight winning streak that includes a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira and a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen. Hernandez’s well-rounded skill set, combining precise striking with solid grappling, makes him a formidable opponent in the middleweight division.
Hernandez’s high striking volume and efficiency, averaging 4.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing fewer than 3 per minute — enable him to maintain pressure and control the pace. His reach advantage and ability to mix striking with takedown threats allow him to keep opponents off balance.
The fight may hinge on Hernandez’s ability to avoid Dolidze’s power shots and impose his volume striking and grappling. Ultimately, Hernandez’s youth, striking volume, and tactical maturity position him to outpoint Dolidze over five rounds, securing a decision win at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Anthony Hernandez (-310), Over 3.5 Rounds (-130)
