As the UFC Vegas 109 Prelims come to an end, we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division on Saturday. Fresh prospects will square off as Missouri's own Julius Walker faces Brazil's Rafael Cerqueira in a can't-miss scrap. Check out the UFC odds for our Walker-Cerqueira prediction and pick.
Julius Walker (6-1) is 0-1 inside the UFC following a split decision loss to Alonzo Menifield during his debut. It marked the first loss of Walker's brief professional career, and after a number of fight cancellations recently, he's ready to step back into action as a heavy betting favorite. Walker stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.
Rafael Cerqueira (11-2) has gone 0-2 since joining the UFC in 2024. He's dropped back-to-back fights against Ibo Aslan and Modestas Bukauskas upon his entry to the UFC, so this will be his first chance at another fresh prospect as he looks for his elusive first win. Cerqueira stands 6-foot-3 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Julius Walker-Rafael Cerqueira odds
Julius Walker: -650
Rafael Cerqueira: +470
Over 1.5 rounds: +200
Under 1.5 rounds: -270
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Why Julius Walker will win
- Last Fight: (L) Alonzo Menifield – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Julius Walker makes his return to the cage following an extremely close decision loss during his debut against Alonzo Menifield.
While the level of competition may have caught Walker by surprise, he actually hung in there well against a tested veteran like Menifield and managed to have his own moments as well. He comes into this bout as the second-largest betting favorite on the card.
Prior to entering the UFC, Walker held titles in two separate promotions (Peak Fighting, Synergy FC) while taking on increasingly difficult competition. After testing a veteran like Alonzo Menifield during his debut, Walker should have a wealth of knowledge coming into his second appearance and finally hoping to get his UFC career off the ground.
With four of his wins coming by way of knockout, Walker possesses the punching power of a heavyweight while still being able to move around the octagon fluidly. Look for him to manage the distance while loading up his power shots and warning Cerqueira with the lead jab.
Why Rafael Cerqueira will win
- Last Fight: (L) Modestas Bukauskas – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Rafael Cerqueira has had a tough draw since entering the UFC, having to face two established fighters in his first two appearances.
While both bouts were ended by knockout in the first round, Cerqueira fights without fear and is willing to trade with anyone in the division. If he's able to land first, he's more than probable to drop his opponent thanks to his eight career wins by knockout.
Still, Cerqueira will be at a disadvantage once again given his wild style. His opponent is much more measured with the striking, and Cerqueira could fall behind on the totals if he waits too long to open things up. While it may be dangerous, he stands to see the most success if he's able to land hard and clean during the first round of this fight.
If Cerqueira is able to gain Walker's respect during the opening round, it should force Walker to think twice about closing the distance, leaning on his back foot as a result. Once Cerqueira feels his opponent retreating, it opens the door for him to explode with striking offense and hopefully land a finishing blow.
Final Julius Walker-Rafael Cerqueira prediction & pick
This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, and given both fighters' history of finishing bouts, we should be in for a quick result in this one. Julius Walker comes in as the card's second-highest betting favorite, but we've seen Rafael Cerqueira threaten much better competition in the past with his wild striking and unrelenting toughness.
The first round of this fight should be the most telling as Rafael Cerqueira will have his best chance to win the bout. After the first round, we have to favor the skill set of Julius Walker and his ability to mix things up on the feet.
Neither fighter is at their best on the ground, so I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet. From there, Julius Walker is certainly the more technical striker and should be able to avoid the knockout strikes from Cerqueira. Let's roll with him to win this fight as we take a chance on the total over.
Final Julius Walker-Rafael Cerqueira Prediction & Pick: Julius Walker (-650); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+200)
