Bantamweight prospect Jean Matsumoto (16-1) returns to the Octagon to face veteran Miles Johns (15-3, one no-contest) at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday. It is time to continue our UFC Vegas 109 odds series with a Miles Johns-Jean Matsumoto prediction and pick.
Johns, 31, enters the matchup off a loss to Felipe Lima at UFC Tampa 2024 that ended a four-fight unbeaten streak. Since joining the promotion in 2019, Johns has fought his way to the cusp of the rankings, going 6-3 with one no-contest in the Octagon. He will end an eight-month-long layoff when he competes for the first time in 2025 at UFC Vegas 109.
Matsumoto, 25, is also coming off a loss in a short-notice matchup against divisional mainstay Rob Font at UFC Seattle.
Matsumoto would have entered the rankings with a win, but instead suffered the first loss of his career. Still one of the best bantamweight prospects, the Brazilian is 2-1 in the UFC with notable wins over ‘The Ultimate Fighter' alumni Brad Katona and Dan Argueta.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Miles Johns-Jean Matsumoto odds
Miles Johns: +235
Jean Matsumoto: -290
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
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Why Miles Johns will win
Johns has done most of his work thus far with his hands, but he is a wrestler by trait. Should he return to his roots for this fight, he could give the young Matsumoto trouble. Johns is 3-0 in the UFC when he lands more takedowns than his opponent and 2-1 when he lands two or more takedowns.
Matsumoto's sample size is small, but he has struggled at times against high-level wrestlers. Although he has a submission win over Argueta, he allowed nine takedowns before that and lost round one on all three judges' scorecards.
Matsumoto lost the striking exchanges in his lone loss to Font, but he has given up 14 total takedowns in the Octagon and has been out-wrestled in three of his last four fights.
Johns is not a high-volume wrestler, averaging just 0.9 takedowns per 15 minutes, but all he needs is a few mat returns to control the pace of the fight. He is deceptively difficult to hit, owning a career 67 percent striking defense in his 11 fights in the Octagon.
Conversely, Matsumoto often engages in the fire too much for his own good, absorbing 5.4 significant strikes per minute with a meager 45 percent striking defense.
Why Jean Matsumoto will win
Despite what his UFC record indicates, Johns has been somewhat of a gatekeeper since joining the promotion. Of his six official wins in the Octagon, three have since been released by the company, and only one fighter, a 38-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, has a winning record in the UFC.
Matsumoto is coming off his first career defeat, which is always an interesting test for young prospects. However, that loss comes with a grain of salt, as the 25-year-old stepped into that matchup with Font on short notice. He fared well under the circumstances with many fans believing he did enough to deserve a victory.
Regardless, Matsumoto takes a step back in competition by facing Johns. The Brazilian is still young in his career, but his most recent win over Katona is comparable to Johns, who was out-struck in all three of his UFC defeats. Matsumoto has landed 77 or more significant strikes in three of his last four fights and will have a decisive athleticism and speed advantage over Johns.
Final Miles Johns-Jean Matsumoto prediction & pick
Not often do undefeated prospects suffer their first career loss and see their stock rise, but that seems to be the case with Jean Matsumoto.
He lost his undefeated record, but Matsumoto seemed to gain a lot from stepping in on short notice against a gritty veteran like Rob Font. The UFC appears to be returning the favor by giving him a winnable matchup to bounce back against Miles Johns.
He has the wrestling pedigree that has given Matsumoto troubles before, but he does not use it nearly as often as he could. He lands just 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes while completing only 20 percent of his attempts.
Matsumoto's 57 percent takedown defense is not impressive on paper, but it is skewed by the 19 shots Dan Argueta took on him in his UFC debut. Johns has never shown that kind of volume and chain wrestling in his game.
Instead, Johns prefers to do his damage with his hands, owning a 60 percent knockout rate. Matsumoto has been hurt on the feet before but tends to struggle against high-volume strikers, which Johns is not.
Conversely, Johns has struggled against diverse strikers against whom he cannot match their athleticism. Matsumoto, a Muay Thai black belt, loves to mix up his attacks and use his movement to give stagnant fighters like Johns trouble tracking him down.
Final Miles Johns-Jean Matsumoto Prediction & Pick: Jean Matsumoto by Decision (-150)
