UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues on the main card with a fight between Iasmin Lucindo and Angela Hill in the strawweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lucindo-Hill prediction and pick.
Iasmin Lucindo (17-6) comes into this weekend’s matchup against Angela Hill with strong recent form, including wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez in 2024. Despite a unanimous-decision loss to Amanda Lemos in March 2025, Lucindo has demonstrated resilience and well-rounded skills, looking to build momentum in this fight at UFC Vegas 109.
Angela Hill (18-14) comes into this weekend’s matchup against Iasmin Lucindo with a recent 3-2 in her last five. Highlights include a guillotine choke submission win over Luana Pinheiro in May 2024 and a split-decision victory over Ketlen Souza in February 2025. Hill’s experience and resilience position her to challenge Lucindo’s momentum in this strawweight battle.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill odds
Iasmin Lucindo: -180
Angela Hill: +150
Over 2.5 Rounds: -720
Under 2.5 Rounds: +450
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Why Iasmin Lucindo will win
- Last Fight: (L) Amanda Lemos – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Iasmin Lucindo possesses key advantages over Angela Hill heading into UFC Vegas 109. At 23 years old, Lucindo is in her physical prime, significantly younger than the 40-year-old Hill. This youth translates to speed, energy, and durability across the three rounds.
Lucindo’s aggressive style pairs well with her ability to control the fight’s location by mixing striking with effective takedowns. She averages about two takedowns per three rounds, imposing grappling pressure when needed.
Her striking, though not as high in volume as Hill’s, is precise and tactical, capable of inflicting consistent damage while avoiding unnecessary risks. Lucindo’s slight reach advantage and well-rounded skill set enable her to keep the fight close to her preferred range, limiting Hill’s ability to use her volume-striking advantage effectively.
Lucindo’s recent wins over notable opponents like Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez highlight her capacity to defeat high-level competition, demonstrating resilience even after a loss to Amanda Lemos.
Meanwhile, Hill’s somewhat declining physicality and less consistent defense against takedowns could allow Lucindo to dictate the bout, controlling where the fight goes.
Overall, Lucindo’s youth, grappling prowess, and tactical striking set her up to outwork Hill and earn a decision win at UFC Vegas 109.
Why Angela Hill will win
- Last Fight: (W) Ketlen Souza – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Angela Hill brings extensive UFC experience against Iasmin Lucindo at UFC Vegas 109 that gives her a strategic edge. With an 18-14 professional record and recent UFC wins including a guillotine choke submission over Luana Pinheiro, Hill's grappling has been sharp.
Her ability to finish on the ground remains a serious threat to Lucindo, who shows some defensive grappling vulnerabilities.
Hill’s striking is precise and diverse with a 60% significant strike accuracy coupled with improved takedown defense at 72%, allowing her to manage exchanges both standing and on the mat. Although 40 years old, Hill's fight IQ and resilience help her adapt mid-fight, potentially outsmarting the younger Lucindo.
Lucindo’s aggressive approach may not be enough to offset Hill’s experience and tactical composure, especially in close exchanges or grappling scrambles. Hill’s versatility and ability to mix striking with well-timed submissions positions her to control the pace and avoid Lucindo’s takedown pressure.
If Hill can impose her game early and avoid being overwhelmed by Lucindo’s youthful energy, she is well-equipped to secure a decision or submission win. Her recent form and balanced skill set make her a favorite to outlast and outfight Lucindo at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill prediction & pick
Angela Hill enters UFC Vegas 109 as a slight underdog against the younger Iasmin Lucindo, but experience and tactical acumen could tip the scales in her favor. At 40, Hill brings a wealth of Octagon knowledge, having won three of her last four fights and demonstrated sharp grappling skills, including a recent guillotine choke submission victory.
Despite Lucindo’s physical youth and momentum from wins over notable contenders, Hill’s striking accuracy (60%) and solid takedown defense (around 75%) make her difficult to control. Lucindo’s aggressive style and ability to land takedowns have worked on lesser competition, but Hill’s well-rounded game and ability to scramble back up may neutralize these efforts.
Hill’s high-volume striking—landing about 5.47 significant strikes per minute, gives her a consistent scoring edge as long as she stays upright.
Lucindo, while precise and tactical with her striking, has shown vulnerabilities against stronger, more experienced opposition in grappling exchanges. The matchup will likely see Hill leveraging her fight IQ and composure to outpoint Lucindo over three tough rounds.
Overall, Hill’s experience, defensive grappling, and precision striking set her up to edge a decision victory at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Iasmin Lucindo-Angela Hill Prediction & Pick: Angela Hill (+150), Over 2.5 Rounds (-750)
