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The UFC Vegas 109 Main Card is in full swing on ESPN+ as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. UFC veteran Andre Fili of Team AlphaMale will take on RoufusSport's own Christian Rodriguez in a bout that's sure to bring the fireworks. Check the UFC odds for our Fili-Rodriguez prediction and pick.
Andre Fili (24-12) comes into this bout with a 12-11-0-1 record inside the UFC since 2013. He's alternated wins and losses over his last seven fights for a 3-4 record, most recently falling to Melquizael Costa during his last bout. He'll look to add another win as he tries to find some momentum. Fili stands 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach.
Christian Rodriguez (12-3) has gone 5-3 inside the UFC since debuting in 2022. He came into the promotion with a spotless record, also falling to Melquizael Costa during his most recent bout. With a 1-2 record in his last three appearances, Rodriguez will hope to get back in the win column as the underdog here. He stands 5-foot-7 with a 71.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 Odds: Andre Fili-Christian Rodriguez Odds
Andre Fili: +200
Christian Rodriguez: -245
Over 2.5 rounds: -230
Under 2.5 rounds: +175
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Why Andre Fili Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Melquizael Costa – SUB (guillotine, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Andre Fili had another tough fight his last time out in facing a game brawler like Melquizael Costa. While it wasn't a terrible performance on Fili's part as much as it was a great finish by Costa, Fili is certainly hoping for his first winning streak in the UFC since 2019. He's been facing some of the division's best competition, so his experience should carry some weight as he takes on a fresh prospect like Rodriguez.
Andre Fili is one of the best pure-strikers in this Featherweight Division, landing 3.85 strikes per minute and mixing things up with a variation of punches and kicks. His low leg kicks have proven to be effective in the past, so don't be surprised if Fili goes back to the well and tries to stifle Rodriguez's movement by damaging the lead leg.
Fili needs to work on his accuracy, landing just 37% of the strikes he throws. While his defense is slightly better at 51%, Fili has been touched throughout his last few fights and would see much more success if he's able to improve his accuracy. Against an aggressive striker like Rodriguez, we could see Fili fight more defensively this time around in trying to get the win.
Why Christian Rodriguez Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Melquizael Costa – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Christian Rodriguez looked flat during his bout against Melquizael Costa, falling behind early in the striking numbers and failing to even things up by the end of the bout. He was tagged a number of times throughout that fight, something we don't usually see from Rodriguez as his defense is typically sound. He's thrives in a high-paced striking environment, so Rodriguez could have the perfect opponent here to show off more of his skills.
Rodriguez makes his money by standing in front of opponents and being the more willing fighter to absorb shots while dishing his own. He's not known for his pure knockout power, but Rodriguez puts a ton of snap behind each punch and when he's landing cleanly, it quickly becomes obvious by the look of his opponent.
To earn this win as the heavy betting favorite, Rodriguez will have to meet Fili head-on and be the more accurate puncher. Fili isn't someone you want to meet in a tight phonebooth, but Rodriguez can certainly gain the upper hand if he's able to counter effectively and land the last shot in each exchange.
Final Andre Fili-Christian Rodriguez Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of a “Fight of the Night” effort given both sides' ability to brawl in the center of the octagon. Both men are known for raining down strikes from close quarters, so we should see a number of heated exchanges throughout this fight.
Andre Fili will certainly feel the chip on his shoulder as the underdog in this one, so I expect him to press the action and be the aggressor throughout this fight. Christian Rodriguez, however, thrives when he's countering opponents and should have ample opportunities to do so with this particular matchup.
For our final prediction, we have to slightly side with Christian Rodriguez to earn the win thanks to his active counter striking. Andre Fili will throw a number of good looks at him, but ultimately it's Rodriguez who will land the more resounding shots.
Final Andre Fili-Christian Rodriguez Prediction & Pick: Christian Rodriguez (-245); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-230)
