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UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues on the prelims with a fight between Gabriella Fernandes and Julija Stoliarenko in the women's flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fernandes-Stoliarenko prediction and pick.
Gabriella Fernandes (10-3) enters this weekend’s matchup off a huge upset submission win over undefeated Wang Cong at UFC Macau, finishing her with a rear-naked choke in Round 2. Prior to that, Fernandes secured a unanimous decision victory over Carli Judice, showing tactical striking and resilience. She looks confident and dangerous this weekend.
Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-1) returns this weekend after a challenging stretch marked by a recent TKO loss to Luana Carolina in February 2024 and a highlight submission win over Molly McCann in July 2023. She brings improved strategy following surgery and coaching, aiming to reestablish her threat with her elite grappling skills this weekend against Fernandes. Stoliarenko’s blend of striking and submission expertise makes this a highly anticipated matchup.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Gabriella Fernandes-Julija Stoliarenko odds
Gabriella Fernandes: -440
Julija Stoliarenko: +340
Over 2.5 Rounds: +135
Under 2.5 Rounds: -175
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Why Gabriella Fernandes will win
- Last Fight: (W) Cong Wang – SUB R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (2 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Gabriella Fernandes has clear advantages over Julija Stoliarenko heading into UFC Vegas 109. Fernandes boasts a superior striking output, landing 3.46 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy, compared to Stoliarenko’s 2.49 at 39%. This offensive efficiency, paired with a solid 49% strike defense, suggests Fernandes can control stand-up exchanges effectively and limit damage taken.
Fernandes also shows better takedown defense (60%) than Stoliarenko (54%), allowing her to keep the fight where she excels, on her feet. While Stoliarenko has a higher submission average (1.7 per 15 minutes versus 0.3), Fernandes’ grappling defense is strong enough to neutralize these attempts, reducing the risk of being caught in early submission traps.
Fernandes’ recent momentum bolsters her confidence. She arrives on a winning streak, including a notable technical submission victory, whereas Stoliarenko has faced setbacks, including a TKO loss earlier this year. Additionally, Fernandes’ slightly better conditioning and more consistent activity could prove decisive in maintaining pace across the fight’s three rounds.
Physically, their size and reach metrics are nearly identical, so the fight will come down to Fernandes’ sharper striking, improved defense, and momentum. These factors set the stage for Fernandes to outpoint or outlast Stoliarenko to a decision win at UFC Vegas 109.
Why Julija Stoliarenko will win
- Last Fight: (L) Luana Carolina – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 (10 SUB)
Julija Stoliarenko has the edge over Gabriella Fernandes at UFC Vegas 109 due to her elite grappling and submission skills. With 10 career wins by submission, all by armbar, her ability to finish the fight on the ground is a clear threat. Stoliarenko’s championship pedigree in Invicta FC and Lethwei adds to her tough, seasoned fighter profile.
Her recent quick submission victory over Molly McCann shows she can end fights early if given the chance. Fernandes’ grappling defense may be tested intensely as Stoliarenko will hunt takedowns and look to impose her ground game. If Stoliarenko can successfully bring the fight to the mat, she will gain control against a striker who prefers to keep it standing.
Though Stoliarenko suffered a TKO loss to Luana Carolina, she displayed resilience and tactical adjustments throughout that bout. Her orthodox stance and reach advantage allow her to mix striking and clinch effectively, setting up takedown opportunities. Her experience competing at multiple weights and in different combat sports broadens her skill set.
Conditioning could also be a factor; Stoliarenko’s recent fight camp improvements aim at maintaining pace and pressure over three rounds. If Stoliarenko can capitalize early and maintain this pressure, she has the tools to out-grapple and potentially submit Fernandes, securing a victory this weekend.
Final Gabriella Fernandes-Julija Stoliarenko prediction & pick
Gabriella Fernandes enters UFC Vegas 109 as the strong favorite over Julija Stoliarenko, largely due to her recent momentum and well-rounded skill set. Fernandes, riding a 2-2 run in the UFC, impressed with a technical submission win over Cong Wang in late 2024, showing sharp grappling and finishing ability. Her striking is precise and efficient, allowing her to control fights with varied offense.
Stoliarenko, more experienced with a veteran record but coming off mixed results, brings elite grappling and a dynamic striking game. However, her recent loss to Luana Carolina via TKO raises questions about durability against powerful opponents.
Fernandes’ youth, accuracy, and submission prowess give her an edge in dictating the bout’s pace and location. Stoliarenko’s resilience and experience could make this competitive, but Fernandes’ combination of skills and fight IQ make her the likely winner. Expect Fernandes to use controlled striking and grappling pressure to secure a decision or late-round finish at UFC Vegas 109.
Final Gabriella Fernandes-Julija Stoliarenko Prediction & Pick: Gabriella Fernandes (-440), Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
