Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide take on Dan Hurley’s defending national champion UConn Huskies in this Final Four matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-UConn prediction and pick.
For the first time in program history, the Alabama Crimson Tide are Final Four bound. The job Nate Oats has done this year after how much he lost this off-season is nothing short of incredible. Oats has the Tide playing some of the most entertaining basketball in the nation with his vintage lightning-fast tempo. A tall task awaits them in Phoenix but understand one thing–the Tide fear no one.
Dan Hurley and the Huskies are favorites to go back to back for the first time since Billy Donovan’s 2006-2007 run with Florida. One of the most dominant teams of the decade, UConn has absolutely steamrolled their competition so far holding leads of thirty points or more in each game. All-American Donovan Clingan just single-handedly sent the countries top offense packing without breaking a sweat.
The stars will be on full display in this matchup. Tristen Newton and Mark Sears are without a doubt two of the best point guards in the country. Can Alabama spoil t
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Alabama-UConn Odds
Alabama: +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +490
UConn: -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -710
Over: 160.5 (-110)
Under: 160.5 (-110)
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Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
One word: tempo. Tempo, tempo, and more tempo. Alabama’s biggest strength is its fast-paced modern transition offense and outside shooting. North Carolina’s defense has been in the top ten nationally for the entire season. Alabama was able to play at their fast pace and North Carolina fell into the trap of taking unwarranted threes that were deemed costly in the end. Carolina and Clemson are two of the best defenses in the ACC with plenty of experience and size, but that did not stop Alabama from dropping 89 in both.
Also, UConn has yet to play a team like Alabama almost all season. In the Big East, Xavier’s tempo ranking of 31st and St. John’s ranking of 78th are the closest to Alabama’s tempo which ranks 9th. Against Xavier, the Huskies won by 43 points at home but by only five on the road. Against St. John’s, the Huskies won all three meetings by an average margin of victory of just seven, with two games decided by five points or fewer. The best overall offense UConn faced in conference play was Creighton’s which ranked 9th compared the Alabama at 4th. Against Creighton, UConn won by 14 at home but got beat by 19 on the road. In conclusion, the teams that have given UConn the most trouble over the past few months have been fast-paced efficient offenses.
Lastly, sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell should be good to go on Saturday. The Tide’s best three-point shooter (44.3%) has missed the last two games with a head injury. Oats reported that Wrightsell had his first practice in weeks on Tuesday and will be evaluated daily up until game time. All indications point to Wrightsell giving it a shot, which would be a big offensive boost for the Tide.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, one might not even need a breakdown to warrant a wager on UConn at this time. Truly one of the most dominant tournament runs we have seen, the Huskies are the definition of a wagon. Dan Hurley’s complex offense has proven nearly impossible to stop. With Alabama playing a type of “we will just outscore you” strategy, there is not much the Tide can do defensively that will give UConn issues. Alabama has the athleticism to defend, but schematically they tend to miss assignments and rotations which the Huskies will take advantage of. The pick-and-pop ability of Alex Karaban makes rotations that much more difficult. UConn getting open looks is not a matter of if they will get them, because they will. The question is just will they knock the shots down? The answer 90% of the time seems like it is yes.
Second, UConn can make a killing at the free-throw line. Where UConn ranked 3rd in the Big East in offensive free throw rate, Alabama ranked 12th in the SEC in defensive free throw rate. Alabama’s bigs Nick Pringle, Grant Nelson, Jarin Stevenson, Mo Dioubate, and Mo Wague all have a 4.2 or higher fouls committed per 40-minute rate. The Huskies should be able to get the Tide’s front court in foul trouble with how their complex offense often catches defenders in disadvantageous positions.
Length. This will be a major factor in defending Alabama out on the perimeter. Specifically, when defending 6-1 Mark Sears. With Tristen Newton at 6-5 and Cam Spencer at 6-4, UConn could make things uncomfortable for Sears. Not to mention, Cling Kong around the rim making life difficult for anyone attempting an inside shot. If UConn’s length is affecting Alabama’s outside jump shots it could be a long night for the Tide.
Final Alabama-UConn Prediction & Pick
One angle not mentioned yet is the cardio of Donovan Clingan. Clingan has played over 30 minutes just once in 2024. In Big East play, Clingan averaged just 21.8 minutes per game. If UConn is taken into deep waters, is Clingan capable of remaining efficient playing a 35-minute game? The dropoff from Clingan to Samson Johnson is massive in every category.
Also, I can guarantee you that Nate Oats will not be imploring the Brad Underwood “If Clingan blocks 100, he blocks 100” strategy. This is an Alabama team that has been disrespected all year starting with Mark Sears being left off all mid-season watch lists. This is nothing new to them. KenPom has this as an 8-point game, 11.5 is simply far too many points.
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Final Alabama-UConn Prediction & Pick: Alabama +11.5 (110)