Dylan Cease heads to the mound for the San Diego Padres as they face the Houston Astros It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Padres prediction and pick.
Astros-Padres Projected Starters
Framber Valdez vs. Dylan Cease
Framber Valdez (14-6) with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Last Start: Valdez went 6.1 innings giving up five hits and one walk. Just one run would score as he took the no-decision as the Astros beat the Athletics.
2024 Road Splits: Valdez is 6-4 on the road this year in 12 starts. He has a 3.56 ERA and a .228 opponent batting average.
Dylan Cease (13-11) with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP
Last Start: Cease went six innings, giving up four hits and two walks. He would strike out then and not give up a run in a win over the Giants.
2024 Home Splits: Cease is 5-7 at home this year in 13 starts. He has a 3.36 ERA and a .215 opponent batting average.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Padres Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -112
San Diego Padres: +1.5
Moneyline: -104
Over: 7.5 (+110)
Under: 7.5 (-134)
How to Watch Astros vs. Padres
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
TV: SCHN/SDPA
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros are 13th in the majors in runs scored while sitting third in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging. Yordan Alvarez has led the way this year. He is hitting .308 on the year with a .392 on-base percentage. He has 34 home runs, 85 RBIs, and has scored 83 times. Yanier Diaz is also having a great year. He is hitting .298 on the year with a .325 on-base percentage. Diaz has 16 home runs, 81 RBIs, and 64 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats of the year is Alex Bregman. Bregman is hitting .254 on the year with a .311 on-base percentage. He has 23 home runs, 63 RBIs, and has scored 73 times this year
Yordan Alvarez has also been hot in the last week. He is hitting .241 over the last week with two home runs, five RBIs, and three runs scored. Mauricio Dubon has also been solid in the last week. He is hitting .333 with a .384 on-base percentage. Dubon has four RBIs but has not scored a run. Rounding out the best bats in the last week with Jason Heyward. He is hitting .400 over the last week with two home runs, four RBIs, and five runs scored. The Astros are hitting .271 in the last week with six home runs and 30 runs scored in seven games.
Current Astros have 82 career at-bats against Dylan Cease, hitting .265 against him. Jose Altuve is 5-11 with two home runs and two RBIs. Meanwhile, Alex Bregman is 3-10 with two doubles and an RBI. Kyle Tucker is 5-11 with two doubles and three RBIs.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are seventh in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging. Manny Machado has led the way this year. He is hitting .277 on the year with a .327 on-base percentage. He has 26 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 71 runs scored. Jackson Merrill is also having a solid year. He is hitting .290 on the year with a .322 on-base percentage. He has 24 home runs, 86 RBIs, and 74 runs scored. Merrill has also stolen 16 bases on the year. Also having a solid year is Jake Cronenworth. He is hitting .244 on the year but has 16 home runs and 78 RBIs. He has scored 71 times this year. Jurickson Profar rounds out the top bats on the year. He is hitting .285 with a .386 on-base percentage. Profar has 23 home runs, 83 RBIs, and 87 runs scored this year.
Manny Machado is also hot at the plate. He is hitting .308 in the last week with a home run, nine RBIs, and two runs scored. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also playing well. He is hitting .375 in the last week with four home runs, eight RBIs, and six runs scored. Rounding out the top bats in the last week is Luis Arraez. He is hitting .481, but getting on base at a .517 rate. He has just one RBI but has scored six times in the last week. The Padres are hitting .290 in the last week, with eight home runs and 29 runs scored in the last six games.
Current Padres have 52 career at-bats against Framber Valdez. They have hit just .212 against him. Xander Bogaerts is 2-9 with a double and an RBI. Meanwhile, Elias Diaz is 3-7 with a double. Luis Arraez has the only home run, going 1-7 with the home run and an RBI.
Final Astros-Padres Prediction & Pick
Framber Valdez has been in great form since the start of August. He has made seven starts, giving up just seven runs in 47.1 innings of work. Further, the Astros are 6-1 in those seven games. Dylan Cease has been solid, but not as good. He has a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts, as the Padres have gone 2-1 in those games. Both offensive units come into the game hitting well. They have both scored over four runs per game in the last week. Valdez has been the better pitcher as of late though, so take the Astros to get the win.
Final Astros-Padres Prediction & Pick: Astros ML (-112)
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