The time has come for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Qatar as we turn attention towards this next Light Heavyweight (205) bout on the Prelims. Turkey's AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev will take on Brazil's Raffael Cerqueira in the card's most lopsided fight. Check our UFC odds series for the Yakhyaev-Cerqueira prediction and pick.
AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev (7-0) will make his UFC debut following a successful KO-win on Dana White's Contender Series. He's undefeated up to this point and has finished all but one of his pro fights as Yakhyaev comes in the biggest betting favorite at UFC Qatar. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.
Raffael Cerqueira (11-3) has gone 0-3 during his first year in the UFC, losing two of those bouts by knockout and his most recent by unanimous decision. Once making his debut as an undefeated prospect, Cerqueira looks to cash in on what could be the biggest upset of the night. He stands 6-foot-3 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar Odds: AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev-Raffael Cerqueira Odds
AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev: -1350
Raffael Cerqueira: +800
Over 1.5 rounds: +230
Under 1.5 rounds: -315
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Why AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Alik Lorenz – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev made quick work of his Contender Series opposition with a combination knockout just 30 seconds into the fight. Yakhyaev wastes no time in closing the distance as he tries to maul his opponents, exactly what Dana White and the UFC are hoping to inject into this Light Heavyweight Division. As the card's biggest betting favorite, he'll look for another exciting finish early into this one.
Yakhyaev, although fresh into his career, already displayed a very high fight-IQ when closing the distance and choosing to mix in his takedown attempts. On the ground, he's very dominant with his control and makes great use of trapping his opponents' wrists. From there, Yakhyaev is very effective in stacking his opponents and finishing them with his ground-and-pound.
Ultimately, Yakhyaev is the rightful favorite in this fight and he should be looking to win within the first round. He's gone towards a decision just once in his pro career, so his cardio is present, but his clearest path to victory with be throwing caution to the wind and finding the knockout.
Why Raffael Cerqueira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Julius Walker – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Raffael Cerqueira hasn't been able to find his footing in the UFC since arriving in 2024, facing extremely tough opponents like Ibo Aslan and Modestas Bukauskas during his first two fights. While he managed to avoid the knockout in his most recent fight, Cerqueira was still out-struck 96-30 and allowed six takedowns. He'll need to seriously tighten things up if he wants to continue holding a roster spot in the UFC.
Cerqueira is very aggressive with his striking and although he has eight knockouts earlier in his career to show for it, he'll need to learn how to effectively control his distance and avoid leaving his chin in the air. On the ground, he's capable of effectively defending himself and not giving up position, but he notably allowed six takedowns in his last fight and couldn't do much aside from continuing to get back to his feet.
Cerqueira will have to gauge his opponent carefully as Yakhyaev does a great job of mixing in his wrestling with his striking. Cerqueira will have to time strikes perfectly up the middle and anticipate Yakhhyaev to shoot at any moment. If he's able to hurt his opponent at any point during this fight, Cerqueira will have to jump on the opportunity and add his first win in the promotion.
Final AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev-Raffael Cerqueira Prediction & Pick
This could be a do-or-die situation for Raffael Cerqueira as he's looking to avoid his fourth-straight loss to open his UFC run. While he's gotten a tough draw with his opposition, things won't get any easier here against a multi-faceted finisher like AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev.
Yakhyaev does a tremendous job of closing the distance quickly with his striking and shooting for takedowns. He's likely to get Cerqueira down rather easily during this fight and he should have a significant advantage when grappling with his opponent. From there, Yakhyaev's ground-and-pound is the most likely outcome as no opponent has been able to stop him from there does yet.
For the final prediction, I see AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev landing strikes, landing his takedown, and finishing this fight with his fists from the mount. Don't expect this one to last long as Yakhyaev will immediately push to engage his opponent.
Final AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev-Raffael Cerqueira Prediction & Pick: AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev (-1350); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-315)
