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The Kalen DeBoer era begins at Alabama as the former Washington head coach takes over for Nick Saban, who retired back in January. We continue our college football odds series with an Alabama over/under win total prediction for the 2024 college football season.
How different will things be under DeBoer? That's the million-dollar question. Saban built a dynasty in Tuscaloosa with 10 SEC West titles, nine SEC titles, and six national titles in his 17 seasons with the Crimson Tide. He also produced 47 All-Americans and four Heisman Trophy winners.
Replacing all those accolades will be easier said than done for DeBoer and his staff.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Alabama 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 9.5 Wins: (+116)
Under 9.5 Wins: (-142)
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Why Alabama Will Hit the Over
Alabama hired DeBoer because he is a proven winner at every level.
In nine seasons as a college football head coach, his record is 104-12. Sure, five of those were in the NAIA at Sioux Falls, but his 25-3 resume and a National Championship Game appearance at Washington speaks for itself. All he does is win no matter what. Coaching the Tide is a different beast, but he has the playmakers to make it work in year one.
Jalen Milroe is tied with Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava and Ohio State quarterback Will Howard for the fourth-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy, and for good reason. He completed 65.5 percent of his throws for 2,718 yards and 23 touchdowns (only six interceptions) while adding 468 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Around Milroe, there's a running back group that is loaded with breakout candidates in Justice Haynes (25 CARs, 168 YDs, 2 TDs) and Jam Miller (41 CARs, 201 YDs, 1 TD), though the wide receiver unit does have a lot of new faces.
The defensive line is strong with five of the top six producers returning, and there are other playmakers on defense ready to take the next step.
Talent is rarely a question mark at Alabama, and it won't be this season. They're good enough to add another high win total to DeBoer's brilliant resume.
Why Alabama Will Hit the Under
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Does the mystique of Alabama football still exist without Saban? It's something to ponder.
It seems like just when you thought the Tide were down and out, and the dynasty was crumbling, Saban would pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to lead his team to victory. One such example was the miraculous 4th-and-31 conversion against rival Auburn in the 2023 regular-season finale, which saved Alabama's season and fueled an SEC conference title game victory against Georgia and a College Football Playoff appearance against eventual national champion Michigan.
Call it the “Saban effect” or anything you want, but it was real and it was spectacular. DeBoer has an opportunity to build his legend as Alabama coach. However, there's no questioning that season one without Saban will feel different, both for returning players and SEC opponents.
There's also a lot of production to replace. The Tide lost nine players to the 2024 NFL Draft, including three first-round picks (OT JC Latham, LB Dallas Turner, and DB Terrion Arnold) and two second-round picks (CB Kool-Aid McKinstry and EDGE Chris Braswell). Thirty-one players transferred as well – the biggest of which was standout safety and 2023 SEC Freshman of the Year Caleb Downs, who left for Ohio State.
As for the schedule, it ranks as the sixth-toughest in college football, per Phil Steele. Alabama plays five preseason top-20 teams: No. 1 Georgia (home), No. 11 Missouri (home), No. 13 LSU (away), No. 15 Tennessee (away), and No. 16 Oklahoma (away). The Week 3 game at Wisconsin isn't easy, either.
Final Alabama 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
There's little confidence in projecting Alabama football's outlook for the 2024 season.
It's the first time in many years that the Crimson Tide take the field without Saban leading the way, and as good as DeBoer has been as a head coach, he enters an SEC that's salivating over the idea at getting revenge on a program that's caused a lot of heartbreak for its opponents. The schedule is brutal, with the Tide potentially sitting in the underdog role in two or more games.
Still, one can't help but think that we're overthinking this. DeBoer just took a Washington team that was 4-8 in the season before he arrived in 2022 to the biggest game in college football in only two seasons.
The Tide might lose a couple of games, but there's value in betting on them to score another double-digit win season.
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Final Alabama 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5 Wins: (+116)
