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The Houston Astros will continue their four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday at Camden Yards. It's a potential American League Championship preview as we share our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Orioles prediction and pick.
Astros-Orioles Projected Starters
Framber Valdez vs. Albert Suarez
Framber Valdez (13-5) with a 3.20 ERA
Last Start: Valdez dominated in his last outing, hurling seven shutout innings, allowing three hits, striking out nine, and walking one in a win over the Chicago White Sox.
2024 Road Splits: Valdez has been slightly worse on the road, going 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts on the road.
Albert Suarez (6-4) with a 3.18 ERA
Last Start: Suarez was excellent in his last outing, tossing six shutout innings, allowing seven hits, and striking out six in a win over the Boston Red Sox.
2024 Home Splits: Suarez has been good at home, going 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA over 11 starts at Camden Yards.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Orioles Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: -120
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-156)
Moneyline: +102
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
How to Watch Astros vs. Orioles
Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05 PM PT
TV: None
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
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Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kyle Tucker will return soon. But he has still been out since June 23, and the Astros will need to find a way to continue winning without him. They still have an excellent offense, with some of the best hitters in the league who can clobber the baseball.
Jose Altuve is still the leadoff hitter in Houston. He leads the team in hits and will be the first to try to get them some offense. Alex Bregman is next in the order and can drive anyone in. Ultimately, he is one of the most dangerous hitters in the lineup. But when the Astros need to change the game with one swing, they rely on Yordan Alvarez, who leads the team in home runs. He will look to batter the baseball into the right-field seats.
Valdez has had three quality starts in five outings. Also, he dominated the Orioles earlier this season, hurling seven innings, allowing one earned run and six hits in a win over them on June 23. When Valdez finishes, he will turn it over to the fourth-best bullpen in baseball. Josh Hader has been exceptional as the closer, going 6-6 with a 3.36 ERA and 27 saves in 28 chances.
The Astros will cover the spread if they can batter the baseball and drive the ball into all parts of the field. Then, they need Valdez to perform well.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles are trying desperately to keep pace with the New York Yankees as the two teams battle it out in the American League East. They need their offense to continue doing better to make a run and surpass New York.
Gunnar Henderson remains the centerpiece of the offense and gets things going, leading the Orioles in hitting. Furthermore, he will attempt to get the offense off to a great start. Adley Rutschman remains one of the biggest threats in the lineup. He will look to find his pitch and drive it into the outfield. Anthony Santander leads the O's in home runs. Ultimately, his power is one of the highlights of this offense, and he will attempt to change the game with one swing. The Orioles also have Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle, both steady hitters capable of making a difference.
Suarez has produced three shutouts in a row and two quality starters. However, he struggled against the Astros earlier this season, going five innings, allowing five earned runs, 10 hits, striking out three, and walking three in a loss on June 23.
The Orioles will cover the spread if they can clobber the baseball and build up some big innings against the Astros. Then, they need Valdez to pitch well and make his pitches while avoiding the biggest threats in the lineup.
Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The Astros are 69-60 against the run line this season, while the Orioles are 75-55. Also, the Astros are 32-30 against the run line on the road, while the O's are 38-29 against the run line at home. But the Astros have dominated this season's series, winning the first four games and covering the run line. But they lost last night. While the Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball, they simply have not been able to contend with the Astros for the majority of the season. We expect that to continue to some extent, with the Astros doing enough to cover the run line in this one on the road.
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Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros: -1.5 (+130)
