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Top-ranked Auburn (26-2) returns to the road on Saturday in another top-25 matchup against No. 17-ranked Kentucky (19-9). It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Auburn-Kentucky prediction and pick.
Auburn has embarked on another five-game win streak since suffering its first conference loss to Florida on Feb. 8. The Tigers have since returned to No. 1 in the AP poll and are an SEC-best 14-1 with three games remaining in the regular season. Wooden Award hopeful Johni Broome continues to pace Bruce Pearl's squad with 18.8 points and 11.0 rebounds per game.
Kentucky has been up and down in SEC play, largely alternating wins and losses. The Wildcats are just 8-7 in the conference but are coming off a nip-and-tuck 83-82 win over Oklahoma to maintain a top-25 ranking. Junior guard Ortega Oweh has emerged lately to lead the team with 16.1 points per game.
Here are the Auburn-Kentucky College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Kentucky Odds
Auburn: -5.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -205
Kentucky: +5.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +168
Over: 168.5 (-115)
Under: 168.5 (-105)
How to Watch Auburn vs. Kentucky
Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
TV: ABC and ESPN+
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
When Kentucky struggles, it is consistently on the defensive end. In its first year without John Calipari, the Wildcats have maintained an elite offense — averaging the third-most points per game in the nation — but continue to struggle immensely on defense. As such, Kentucky allows a whopping 86 points per game to opponents in its nine losses.
With the best offensive rating in the country, Auburn's well-rounded offense has feasted on similar defenses. Against teams outside of the top 50 in defensive rating, the Tigers are 13-0 and average 88 points per game, winning by an average margin of 23 points.
That includes 6-0 in the SEC with an average margin of victory of 11.2 points. Auburn is also 4-0 against the spread in its last four road games.
Kentucky's defense struggles all around, making it unsurprising that many teams have had success against them in the paint. The best frontcourt threats the Wildcats have faced have all had success against them.
The combination of Adou Thiero, Collin Murray-Broyles, Asa Newell, and Cooper Flagg averaged 19.5 points against them. None are as efficient on the low block as Broome, who leads the ACC with 7.3 field goals per game.
Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win
Auburn has been difficult to beat straight up, but they are far from invincible against the spread. The Tigers are just 16-11 ATS on the year, including just 7-8 in the SEC. Against the spread as a road favorite, Auburn is just 7-5 overall and 5-4 in the conference. Conversely, Kentucky has only been a home underdog once this year, a straight-up win over No. 5-ranked Tennessee on Feb. 11.
Florida's record might suggest mediocrity, but the Gators continue to boast an elite offense. Their 85.6 points per game ranks third in the country, powered by the sixth-highest offensive rating, per KenPom. Auburn's only two straight-up losses on the year came against Duke and Florida, the two best offenses they have faced thus far.
Kentucky continues to struggle with overall consistency, but those struggles have mostly been against inferior opponents. When it comes to big games, the Wildcats routinely show up.
Against ranked opponents, they are 7-3 on the year, with two of those losses against Alabama. That includes straight-up wins over Duke and Gonzaga, and two victories over Tennessee as a sizeable underdog.
Final Auburn-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
In a recurring theme all season, Kentucky tends to show up in its biggest games and come out flat in the ones it is supposed to walk through. It is frustrating for Wildcats fans but an entertaining trend for the rest of the country. Ahead of its stiffest test of the year, Kentucky is 5-2 against top-10 opponents with both losses against Alabama.
Kentucky's inability to defend makes it one of the worst defensive teams in the SEC, a discouraging sight ahead of a matchup with the best offensive rating in NCAA Division I.
However, the Wildcats' sixth-best offensive rating in the country allows them to keep pace with the best offenses in the nation. They are 2-2 ATS against top-five offensive teams with Alabama again accounting for both losses. Straight-up wins over Duke and Florida are included in that sample size.
Auburn has been an elite team overall this season but is near .500 against the spread. The Tigers have been hitting their line at a higher clip lately but are still covering at just a 47 percent rate in conference games. Kentucky will not beat Auburn outright but should put up a much better fight than the line indicates.
Final Auburn-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky +5.5 (-118)
