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Undefeated contender Azamat Murzakanov puts his No. 12 ranking on the line at UFC 316 against the surging Brendson Ribeiro. It is time to continue our UFC 316 odds series with an Amazat Murzakanov-Brendson Ribeiro prediction and pick.
Murzakanov, 36, improved to 14-0 with a knockout of Alonzo Menifield at UFC Kansas City 2024. Though undefeated since entering the UFC in 2022, inactivity continues to plague the Russian, who has fought just four times in his three years with the promotion. As such, “The Professional” enters UFC 316 off a 10-month layoff.
Ribeiro, 28, has taken the opposite approach, making his fifth walk to the octagon in 16 months. Though his career got off to a rocky 0-2 start, the Brazilian enters this opportunity on a two-fight win streak. Coming off a second-round submission win over the previously undefeated Diyar Nurgozhay, Ribeiro enters this fight as a short-notice replacement for Johnny Walker.
Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 odds: Amazat Murzakanov-Brendson Ribeiro odds
Azamat Murzakanov: -625
Brendson Ribeiro: +455
Over 1.5 rounds: +124
Under 1.5 rounds: -160
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Why Azamat Murzakanov will win
Given his inactivity, fans might not be too familiar with Murzakanov, but he is inarguably one of the most dangerous 205-pound fighters in the world.
Murzakanov will be significantly smaller than Ribeiro, but he enters nearly every fight under those conditions. While he might look like a middleweight, Murzakanov has the power of a heavyweight, knocking down all four of his UFC opponents and finishing three of them.
While Murzakanov needs just one shot to end any opponent, opponents find it deceptively difficult to hit him back. Despite fighting as the shorter man with a reach disadvantage, Murzakanov has a stellar 61 percent striking defense in the octagon.
Likewise, Ribeiro is not known for his technique, landing just 43 percent of his wild strikes. The Brazilian might be much larger, but he loves to trade in the phone booth, which would be a terrible idea against Murzakanov.
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Murzakanov has the power to knock Ribeiro out, which three other fighters have done in the last three years. However, he can also win as a wrestler. Murzakanov has just two takedowns in the UFC but has a lengthy background in wrestling.
In a fight against such a tall, rangy opponent in Ribeiro, Murzakanov could pull that out of his back pocket and melt “The Gorilla” with his predatorial ground-and-pound. Ribeiro has struggled to get up whenever he has been placed on his backside in the UFC.
Why Brendson Ribeiro will win
Ribeiro's 6-foot-3, 81-inch frame is often larger than that of his opponents, but he will hold an absurd size advantage over Murzakanov. Not only will Ribeiro dwarf Murzakanov, but he will have a ridiculous 10-inch reach advantage over the Russian. Even with Murzakanov's technical prowess, any striker would find overcoming such a size difference difficult.
Ribeiro might not be the most technical fighter, but he throws caution to the wind in each outing. With his raw power and athleticism, his fight style makes any matchup a 50-50 gamble.
Murzakanov has yet to face anyone with his combination of power, speed, and recklessness. Alonzo Menifield and Devin Clark had the power, but neither takes the same chaotic approach as Ribeiro.
Coming off a win over an undefeated fighter, Ribeiro showed no timidity as a massive underdog against Diyar Nurgozhay.
With Murzakanov coming off another long layoff — and now competing past his prime at age 36 — he will have no grace period to find his timing or establish a range against Ribeiro. “The Gorilla” will get in his face from the opening bell and force him to sink or swim.
Final Amazat Murzakanov-Brendson Ribeiro prediction & pick
Since making his UFC debut, Murzakanov has entered every fight with the same concerns. Fans always wonder how the layoff will affect him against a larger opponent, but he silences doubters each time with a thudding knockout.
Ribeiro is the type of fighter Murzakanov can rack up another highlight-reel win over, but he also presents a uniquely challenging style given the circumstances.
Ribeiro is not only freakishly large but also sneakily athletic and routinely chaotic. From a technical standpoint, Ribeiro is nowhere near Murzakanov's level. That just never seems to matter in any of his fights, as he forces mayhem every chance he gets and never even considers the thought of defending himself.
Murzakanov might try to wrestle Ribeiro, but he is a striker at heart who has no reason to doubt his power and skills as an undefeated contender. Ribeiro has hit the under 1.5 in 19 of his 24 professional fights, including three of his five Octagon bouts.
Murzakanov has hit the under 1.5 in eight of his 14 fights, though never in the UFC. However, he has also never faced anyone who brings pressure and pandemonium as much as Ribeiro will.
Final Amazat Murzakanov-Brendson Ribeiro prediction & pick: Under 1.5 (-160)
