UFC Vegas 115: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan continues on the prelims with a fight between Thomas Petersen and Guilherme Pat in the heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Petersen-Pat prediction and pick.
Thomas Petersen (11-4) looks to rebound following a third-round knockout loss to Vitor Petrino last October. This followed a dominant unanimous decision win over Don’Tale Mayes in May 2025, showing his ability to grind out veterans as he comes into his fight this weekend against Guilherme Pat.
Guilherme Pat (6-0) recently secured a hard-fought unanimous decision victory over Allen Frye Jr. last December in his promotional debut. This followed a dominant third-round TKO of Mauricio Queiroz at LFA 191, proving his finishing power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Thomas Petersen.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Thomas Petersen-Guilherme Pat Odds
Thomas Petersen: -115
Guilherme Pat: -105
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
Why Thomas Petersen Will Win
Thomas Petersen will secure a decisive victory over Guilherme Pat this Saturday by utilizing his elite wrestling pedigree and superior Octagon experience. While Pat is an undefeated prospect with a massive reach, he has yet to face a grappler with Petersen's relentless chain-wrestling ability.
Petersen, a former LFA champion and standout collegiate wrestler, averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes. He will look to close the distance immediately, neutralizing Pat’s eight-inch reach advantage by forcing the fight into the clinch.
Once the fight hits the canvas, Petersen’s heavy top pressure and refined ground-and-pound will become the deciding factor. Pat’s defensive wrestling remains a significant question mark, as he hasn't been forced to defend a high volume of shots in his young career.
By keeping Pat pinned against the mat, Petersen will systematically drain the Brazilian's explosive energy and minimize any striking threats. Even if Pat manages to find his feet, the constant threat of the takedown will make him hesitant to throw his heavy combinations.
Ultimately, Petersen’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place will allow him to control the pace and duration of the match. Expect “The Train” to grind out a dominant unanimous decision or find a late stoppage as Pat fades under the relentless pressure.
Why Guilherme Pat Will Win
Guilherme Pat will secure a massive upset victory over Thomas Petersen by perfectly weaponizing his elite athleticism and significant eight-inch reach advantage. While Petersen is a seasoned wrestler who looks to grind, Pat possesses the explosive counter-striking necessary to intercept those heavy, telegraphed entries.
Pat is a dangerous Brazilian striker who understands how to manage range effectively to avoid being pinned against the Octagon fence. He will utilize a stinging jab and powerful leg kicks to consistently disrupt Petersen’s rhythm and force him into a striking battle.
Whenever Petersen overcommits on a desperate takedown attempt, Pat will be ready to land devastating knees or uppercuts in the clinch. The undefeated prospect has shown a high-level ability to scramble back to his feet, which will quickly frustrate a wrestler who relies on sustained top control.
Petersen has historically struggled with durability when facing opponents who can land heavy, precise combinations in the center of the cage. As the American tires from unsuccessful grappling exchanges, Pat will begin to land at will with a diverse and violent striking arsenal.
Ultimately, Pat’s superior speed and dynamic movement will allow him to completely dictate the terms of this heavyweight encounter. Fans should expect a breakout performance from the Brazilian, likely culminating in a spectacular knockout victory that cements his status as a serious prospect.
Final Thomas Petersen-Guilherme Pat Prediction & Pick
This heavyweight matchup at UFC Vegas 115 features a classic “Experience vs. Hype” narrative that has prediction markets like Kalshi split right down the middle. Thomas Petersen enters as the seasoned grinder with superior wrestling, while the undefeated Guilherme Pat brings a massive eight-inch reach advantage and terrifying knockout power.
The early rounds will likely see Petersen attempting to close the distance immediately to avoid Pat’s long-range striking and heavy leg kicks. If “The Train” can secure a clinch and drag the 6'6″ Brazilian to the canvas, his stifling top control will start to sap Pat’s explosive energy.
However, Pat has shown exceptional composure in his young career and possesses the physical strength to shuck off desperate takedown attempts. On the feet, the striking disparity is significant, and Petersen’s history of taking damage in the pocket makes him a vulnerable target for Pat’s heavy counters.
As the fight enters the second round, Petersen’s cardio and veteran savvy should allow him to chain-wrestle more effectively as Pat’s movements become more labored. While Pat is the more dangerous finisher, Petersen’s ability to force a gritty, ugly fight against the fence is his most reliable path to victory.
Ultimately, the wrestling pedigree of Petersen will likely be the deciding factor in neutralizing the reach of the Brazilian newcomer over fifteen minutes. Expect Petersen to survive some early scares on the feet before grounding Pat consistently to earn a hard-fought unanimous decision victory.
Final Thomas Petersen-Guilherme Pat Prediction & Pick: Thomas Petersen (-115), Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)
