UFC Vegas 115 has reached its apex as we bring you a prediction and pick for the headlining bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. No. 10-ranked Renato Moicano of Brazill will welcome Scotland's Chris Duncan in a can't-miss bout that's guaranteed to be a banger. Check our UFC odds series for the Moicano-Duncan prediction and pick.
Renato Moicano (20-7-1) has gone 12-7 inside the UFC since 2014, most recently dropping to Beneil Dariush via unanimous decision his last time out. Two fights removed from his title shot against Islam Makhachev, he'll hope to continue rising up the rankings and fighting for the belt once again. Moicano stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.
Chris Duncan (15-2) is 6-1 since debuting in 2023. He's notched four-straight victories that include two fight bonuses and a most recent submission finish over Terrance McKinney at UFC 323. Now, he'll look to break through into the rankings with a win as the favorite here. Duncan stands 5-foot-10 with a 71.5-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Odds
Renato Moicano: +145
Chris Duncan: -175
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
Why Renato Moicano Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Beneil Dariush – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 10 SUB
Following his late-notice title shot against Islam Makhchev, Renato Moicano had just a few months to until getting back against Beneil Dariush who had his back against the wall. Moicano couldn't get anything going with just 39 strikes landed, but it was even more alarming to see him surrender on five of five takedowns from Dariush. Against another capable grappling, Moicano can't afford to spend the fight in defensive positions as it doesn't favor his exciting fighting style on the feet.
This time around, Moicano won't be able to waste any time in allowing Chris Duncan to find offense against him. He's more than capable of defending himself on the ground, but constantly taking ground strikes from a brawler like Chris Duncan won't look good in the optics of the fight. Moicano should look to gain Duncan's respect on the feet in hopes of forcing desperation takedowns from his opponent, capitalizing on submission attempts once his opponent is hurt.
It's somewhat surprising to see Moicano the underdog in this fight as he's relish in the role in the past. He's got experience on his side and more ways to win the fight, but it'll take a gritty performance where he's fighting through submission attempts and shots on the feet.
Why Chris Duncan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Terrance McKinney – SUB (anaconda choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Chris Duncan comes into his first ranked bout with all the momentum behind him, notching four-straight wins since falling to Manuel Torres in 2024. He's finished three of those bouts by choke (guillotine, anaconda) and is extremely opportunistic in chasing the neck even from striking position. It all stems from his power and ability to hurt opponents with his straight jab, so be on the lookout for submission attempts any time Moicano is visibly hurt or shooting for a takedown.
On the ground, Duncan uses leverage and power for tremendous squeeze through his submission attempts. Typically, he's been able to avoid putting himself in compromising spots on the ground and favors exploiting opponents who make mistakes once they're tired or hurt. Expect his chin to also be on display as he hasn't been knocked out since his Contender Series audition in 2021
Ultimately, if Chris Duncan keeps his arm guard high while stepping through his jab into his hooks and uppercuts, he should be able to hurt Moicano and force this fight to the ground. From there, watch for Duncan to be dangerous in chasing submissions, especially the standing chokes or arm triangle from mount.
Final Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of a classic as it's definitely expected to end inside the distance. Both fighters are touted as dangerous finishers both on the feet and on the ground with nine knockouts and 14 submissions between the two of them.
Moicano certainly has the edge in experience and has face the higher level of competition, but there's no denying that his chin and durability has taken a beaten over the last few years. Still, he's a live underdog in any situation and will be looking to take Duncan into deep waters as he's never truly out of a fight.
Duncan, however, has all the momentum on his side and is the more devastating puncher on the feet. He's more than likely to hurt or drop Moicano at some point and over the last four fights, he's fallen into a groove of definitively finishing fights with his grappling.
However, there's value to be had with Moicano in a five-round fight and his toughness should be able to carry him over the hump in what should be an all-out war.
Final Renato Moicano-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (+145); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+110)
