UFC Vegas 115: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan continues on the prelims with a fight between Alessandro Costa and Stewart Nicoll in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Costa-Nicoll prediction and pick.
Alessandro Costa (14-5) aims to bounce back from a disappointing TKO loss to Alden Coria last September. That tough defeat followed a spectacular second-round knockout victory over Kevin Borjas, making redemption his ultimate goal as he comes into his fight this weekend against Stewart Nicoll.
Stewart Nicoll (8-2) is seeking his first octagon victory. The Australian prospect recently dropped a tough unanimous decision to Lucas Rocha last October, following a quick submission loss to Jesus Aguilar, making redemption absolutely crucial as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alessandro Costa.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Alessandro Costa-Stewart Nicoll Odds
Alessandro Costa: -410
Stewart Nicoll: +320
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -120
Why Alessandro Costa Will Win
Alessandro Costa is perfectly positioned to defeat Stewart Nicoll this Saturday by utilizing his blistering hand speed and elite takedown defense. The veteran Brazilian possesses severe knockout power that will quickly overwhelm the Australian prospect on the feet.
Nicoll relies heavily on a relentless wrestling attack to ground his opponents and firmly establish heavy top pressure. However, Costa currently boasts a phenomenal takedown defense rate that will brilliantly neutralize those predictable level changes.
By consistently stuffing those obvious grappling entries, Costa will effortlessly force the matchup into a technical kickboxing battle where he holds a massive advantage. Nicoll has historically shown incredibly stiff striking defense when directly pressured by fast, explosive boxers.
Whenever the Australian severely overcommits on a desperate clinch attempt, he will be violently greeted by Costa’s devastating counter right hand. Even if the fight briefly hits the canvas, Costa is a high-level black belt highly capable of sweeping or immediately scrambling back to safety.
Ultimately, the stark difference in striking fluidity and overall Octagon experience will rapidly become glaringly obvious as the bout progresses into the crucial later rounds. Fans should fully expect Costa to brilliantly bounce back into the win column with a spectacular knockout finish.
Why Stewart Nicoll Will Win
Stewart Nicoll will secure his first Octagon victory this Saturday by imposing his relentless grappling pace and suffocating top control on Alessandro Costa. While Costa boasts dangerous hand speed, he has historically wilted under the grueling pressure of continuous chain wrestling.
The Australian prospect must actively avoid the center of the cage and immediately force the Brazilian backward against the fence. By heavily crowding Costa's explosive boxing range, Nicoll will easily disguise his level changes and secure dominant takedowns.
Once the fight inevitably hits the canvas, Nicoll's heavy hips and relentless positional advancements will systematically drain his opponent's explosive energy reserves. Costa is a legitimate black belt, but defending against continuous ground-and-pound requires immense stamina that he often lacks late in fights.
As the grueling matchup progresses into the later rounds, the stark difference in cardiovascular endurance will become glaringly apparent to the judges. Nicoll will expertly transition from dominant positions to hunt for submissions, violently punishing every desperate scramble with heavy elbows.
Ultimately, Costa simply cannot maintain his knockout power while constantly fighting off his back against a relentless, grinding grappler. Fans should fully expect Nicoll to utterly exhaust the Brazilian veteran to finally claim a dominant, breakthrough unanimous decision win.
Final Alessandro Costa-Stewart Nicoll Prediction & Pick
The upcoming flyweight bout between Alessandro Costa and Stewart Nicoll at UFC Vegas 115 presents a fascinating clash of styles for prediction market enthusiasts. When analyzing the early lines on platforms like Kalshi, Costa is understandably positioned as the favorite due to his significant edge in Octagon experience and striking power.
Costa will rely heavily on his blistering hand speed and devastating counter-striking to keep the Australian prospect firmly at bay. His primary objective will be to stuff the early takedown attempts, forcing Nicoll into a dangerous kickboxing battle where the Brazilian holds a clear technical advantage.
Conversely, Nicoll must absolutely implement a relentless, grinding wrestling game plan to have any chance of securing his first UFC victory. He needs to aggressively crowd Costa's space, chain his takedowns together against the fence, and establish heavy top pressure to drain the veteran's explosive energy.
However, Costa's historically stout takedown defense should hold up well against the predictable level changes coming his way. Once Nicoll inevitably becomes frustrated and overcommits on a desperate entry, he will be extremely vulnerable to a fight-ending counter sequence.
Expect Costa to weather the early grappling storm before finding his striking range and completely taking over the momentum of the fight. Ultimately, the Brazilian's superior firepower will be too much to handle, allowing him to confidently secure a decisive knockout victory in the second round.
Final Alessandro Costa-Stewart Nicoll Prediction & Pick: Alessandro Costa (-410), Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
