The UFC Vegas 115 Co-Main Event is here as we bring you a prediction and pick for an upcoming tilt in the top-10 of the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Fellow Brazilians meet as No. 3-ranked Virna Jandiroba takes on No. 7 Tabatha Ricci in a high-stakes bout between contenders. Check our UFC odds series for the Jandiroba-Ricci prediction and pick.
Virna Jandiroba (22-4) has gone 8-4 inside the UFC since 2019, most recently dropping to Mackenzie Dern via unanimous decision for the interim title. Prior to that, she rode a five-fight winning streak and intends on making her case for another shot at the belt. Jandiroba stands 5-foot-3 with a 64-inch reach.
Tabatha Ricci (12-3) is an impressive 7-3 inside the UFC since 2021 after most recently beating Amanda Ribas inside the distance her last time out. 2-1 in her prior three fights, Ricci will look to face her highest-ranked opponent with a chance to insert herself in title talks. Ricci stands 5-foot-1 with a 61-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Virna Jandiroba-Tabatha Ricci Odds
Virna Jandiroba: -130
Tabatha Ricci: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: -445
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
Why Virna Jandiroba Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mackenzie Dern – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 14 SUB
Virna Jandiroba was simply outplayed in a chess match versus Mackenzie Dern for the interim belt, falling behind on the striking and looking a step slow on the ground where she's typically most dominant. It was a tough matchup issue for Jandiroba as she gave it all she had, but this bout against Ricci will be much more suited to her style of smothering opponents and negating their offense.
With Ricci coming in as an active striker, Jandiroba will look to close the distance and tie her opponent up in the clinch as the slightly taller and longer fighter. Jandiroba is also extremely difficult to work with against the fence as she's constantly pressuring opponents with level changes and dirty boxing from in close.
Jandiroba can also see a big advantage on the ground if she's able to end up in a dominant position like side control or mount. Jandiroba is even effective from the half guard as she's constantly working to better her position without risking losing the superior angles. She's fully intent on silencing Ricci's striking, taking this fight to the ground, and dominant rounds on the back of her control time.
Why Tabatha Ricci Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Amanda Ribas – TKO (elbow, ground strikes, R2)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Tabatha Ricci looked like the best version of herself we've seen up to this point, putting away a tough veteran like Amanda Ribas and bouncing back from her loss against Yan Xiaonan. After starting slow against Ribas' quick pace, she turned things up in the second round and unleashed her full arsenal of kickboxing techniques. She may have to flex her grappling this time around, but Ricci is confident with three wins by submission and carrying no losses.
Ricci is landing almost double (4.18) significant strikes per minutes compared to Jandiroba (2.33) and she'll likely be the fighter setting the pace from the opening round. Ricci has the cardio to go a full five rounds, but it certainly won't be easy if she's constantly working to get back to her feet. Her takedown defense is a solid 78% opposite Jandiroba's 37% takedown accuracy, so she should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and where she's most comfortable.
Still, Jandiroba is successful in executing her grappling plans more often than not, so it certainly won't be easy for Ricci to dominant in the striking, especially given Jandiroba's strong defense from there as well. Ultimately, Ricci will need to be spotless and limit her mistakes on the feet without losing time in Jandiroba's control on the ground.
Final Virna Jandiroba-Tabatha Ricci Prediction & Pick
Virna Jandiroba is looking to earn another title shot after losing out on the interim belt her last time out, but this fight should be more of a litmus test to see whether Tabatha Ricci can hang in with the top fighters of the division. She's been on a quick rise through the ranks and a win her coupled with another could give rise to a new title challenger.
However, we know exactly what we're going to get out of Jandiroba and if she's able to execute her typical game plan on the ground, she'll certainly be the dominant side if Ricci isn't able to work her kickboxing on the feet. Expect a quick first takedown attempt from Jandiroba as she looks to test the strength of her opponent.
Virna Jandiroba may be the smart pick here as it's far too likely that Ricci will struggle to continuously stay on her feet. We'll side with the most likely outcome here in Jandiroba taking this fight on the scorecards.
Final Virna Jandiroba-Tabatha Ricci Prediction & Pick: Virna Jandiroba (-130); OVER (-445)
