UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues on the main card with a fight between Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Muhammad-Garry prediction and pick.
Belal Muhammad (24-4, 1 NC) enters UFC Qatar after losing a close decision to Jack Della Maddalena in a title bout, following five-round rematch win over Leon Edwards in 2024. Known for pressure striking and relentless wrestling, he looks to rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ian Machado Garry.
Ian Machado Garry (16-1) enters UFC Qatar after bouncing back from his lone career loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov with a hard-fought unanimous decision over Carlos Prates in April. “The Future” showcases elite striking accuracy and diverse attacks as he comes into his fight this weekend against Belal Muhammad.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar odds: Belal Muhammad-Ian Machado Garry odds
Belal Muhammad: +220
Ian Machado Garry: -270
Over 2.5 rounds: -315
Under 2.5 rounds: +230
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Why Belal Muhammad will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jack Della Maddalena – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Belal Muhammad's relentless pressure and wrestling-heavy game plan pose the perfect stylistic challenge to Ian Machado Garry at UFC Qatar. Muhammad thrives by closing distance, initiating clinches, and grinding opponents against the fence, forcing strikers like Garry into uncomfortable exchanges where volume and cardio matter most.
Garry's striking is slick, but Muhammad's durability and chin have held up against elite competition, including five-round wars with Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns. If Muhammad can push through early striking exchanges and drag Garry into deep waters, his superior wrestling and relentless pace will wear down the Irishman's offense.
Muhammad's experience in high-level title fights gives him a mental edge, especially against an opponent still building championship résumé. Garry has struggled when pressured and controlled, as evidenced by his loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, where constant grappling negated his striking advantages.
Expect Muhammad to employ a smothering game plan, mixing takedowns with cage control and refusing to give Garry space to operate freely. The prediction is Belal Muhammad by decision, using his relentless grinding style to neutralize Garry's striking and earn another marquee win at UFC Qatar.
Why Ian Machado Garry will win
- Last Fight: (W) Carlos Prates – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Ian Machado Garry’s precision striking and developing takedown defense have him primed to outclass Belal Muhammad at UFC Qatar. Coming off a bounce-back win over Carlos Prates, Garry brings elite speed, distance management, and a creative arsenal of attacks that have overwhelmed most high-level welterweights he’s faced.
Muhammad’s pressure game is relentless, but Garry’s movement and footwork allow him to reset and counter, frustrating volume wrestlers. If Garry keeps the fight standing, he’ll be able to punish Muhammad’s entries with straight shots, body kicks, and spinning attacks that can accumulate damage and dissuade takedown attempts.
Muhammad’s tendency to grind can leave him vulnerable to fast combinations and counters when facing rangy, accurate strikers. Garry’s comfort at range and confidence from surviving his first loss have sharpened his composure under fire, making him less likely to be worn down by clinch exchanges or the grinding pace.
If Garry sets his tempo early and stays disciplined, he’ll be able to pick apart Muhammad over three rounds. The prediction is Ian Machado Garry by decision, using his technical edge in striking and defensive awareness for a statement win in Qatar.
Final Belal Muhammad-Ian Machado Garry prediction & pick
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry at UFC Qatar pits relentless pressure against dynamic striking in a must-watch welterweight showdown. Muhammad enters as the proven grinder, with five-round experience and a history of neutralizing top strikers through clinch work and high-volume wrestling.
Garry brings a more varied attack, using speed and creative combos to dictate pace and frustrate opponents at range. His bounce-back win after his loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov shows he’s refined his defensive skills, making him more difficult to corral and break down as the fight unfolds.
Early rounds likely see Muhammad pushing for takedowns and clinch pressure, trying to slow Garry’s rhythm and keep him defending rather than attacking. Garry’s ability to maintain distance and capitalize on Muhammad’s entries will be the key factor, especially if he lands clean counters and body kicks to make Muhammad pay for reckless advances.
This matchup is close, but Garry’s edge in speed, striking accuracy, and defensive improvements tip the scales. Ian Machado Garry continues his winning ways with an unanimous decision, outpointing Muhammad on the feet and denying the veteran’s signature grinding pace in Qatar.
Final Belal Muhammad-Ian Machado Garry Prediction & Pick: Ian Machado Garry (-270), Over 2.5 Rounds (-315)
