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The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Indiana Hoosiers. Check out our college basketball odds series for our North Carolina Indiana prediction and pick.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are not turning the corner. They had hoped that Sunday's game against Alabama would be a wakeup call after their Friday loss to Iowa State in Portland at the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. They competed well, but they still didn't play well. There's a difference between effort and quality, and the Tar Heels continue to fail to merge the two in the early stages of their season. This clunky start to the season is best viewed as a lack of attention to detail from players who frankly should know better.
North Carolina was a very connected team which knew exactly what to do in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Brilliant on offense against Baylor, superb on defense against Saint Peter's, and balanced at both ends against UCLA and Duke, the Tar Heels weren't just playing hard; they were playing smart. They were in the right positions. They took care of the ball and the defensive glass. They were mindful of the details that go into the process of winning. Hard work isn't enough by itself; it needs to be accompanied by basketball IQ. Since North Carolina brought back the core of the team which made the national championship game last season, the obvious thought process was that these players would pick up right where they left off, and that the seamless continuity they established last March would be fully present in November.
Nope. That's where this team has fallen short.
North Carolina just isn't making the kinds of plays which separate a great team from its opponent. The Tar Heels, either in victory or defeat, are playing to the level of their competition. North Carolina trailed Portland with five minutes left last Thursday before rallying to win. UNC committed 14 turnovers in the loss to Iowa State last Friday. It went four overtimes with Alabama and lost by a bucket on Sunday. The Tar Heels easily could have won that game, but they are leaving things up to chance by going down to the wire in nearly every game they play. They aren't blocking out, aren't protecting the paint, and simply aren't managing to keep opponents in check. It doesn't seem like any fixes will come quickly for this team, as was the case last season.
Indiana is much more evolved and advanced in the early stages of its season. Big man Trayce Jackson-Davis brings a complete skill set to the low post, and so far this season, he looks the part of a polished player who can carry a group of role players on his back. Jackson-Davis has been scoring and rebounding at a high level for Indiana this season, helping the Hoosiers win on the road at Xavier and get off to a very solid starto in their bid to contend for the Big Ten championship. Purdue is the team within the state of Indiana which probably looks the best right now, but Indiana has to be pleased with its start. The Hoosiers were fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament last season, sneaking into the First Four in Dayton, but their strong month of November points to a much easier entry into March Madness in 2023. TJD is the heart of the effort, but he needs his supporting cast to continue to play well. We're going to learn a lot more about that supporting cast against North Carolina's veteran starting five.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the North Carolina-Indiana College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina-Indiana Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels: +4.5 (-105)
Indiana Hoosiers: -4.5 (-115)
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
This team is too good, too experienced, and simply too talented to continue to play below its potential. The breakout game is going to come here against Indiana.
Why Indiana Could Cover the Spread
The Tar Heels are still searching for the formula they found last March. Indiana seems to have an identity and a much more pronounced comfort zone, the kind of connectivity North Carolina was supposed to have carried into this season, but has not. Indiana is simply a more evolved team, and it's playing at home.
Final North Carolina-Indiana Prediction & Pick
North Carolina's lack of cohesion is simply too obvious to ignore. Indiana has that cohesion, and it will matter.
Final North Carolina-Indiana Prediction & Pick: Indiana -4.5
