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The #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) visit the #5 Michigan Wolverines (6-0) in a battle of undefeated Big Ten teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Penn State-Michigan prediction and pick.
Penn State is undefeated through five regular season games this season. Outside of a tight 4-point win over Purdue in week 1, the Nittany Lions have cruised through their schedule thus far. In week 3 Penn State notably throttled Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium: 41-12. The Nittany Lions are 3-2 against the spread this season after failing to cover 20+ point lines in their last two games against Central Michigan and Northwestern. Penn State is 2-0 in Big 10 play thanks to their win at Purdue and last week's win against Northwestern.
Michigan, too, is undefeated through six games as they continue their quest to win a second consecutive Big 10 title. Michigan has had just one close game this season. In week 4 Maryland gave the Wolverines a scare but they eventually pulled away: 34-27. Other than that, Michigan has looked the part of a College Football Playoff Team. The Wolverines are 3-3 against the spread this season. They're undefeated in Big Ten play thanks to wins against Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana.
Here are the Penn State-Michigan college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Penn State-Michigan Odds
Penn State Nittany Lions: +6.5 (-102)
Michigan Wolverines: -6.5 (-120)
Over: 51.5 (+100)
Under: 51.5 (-122)
Why Penn State Could Cover The Spread
Penn State has been one of the surprise teams in the country this season. Unranked in the preseason AP Poll, the Nittany Lions have clawed their way into the top 10 heading into this week. While Penn State has yet to play a ranked team, a win this week could propel the Nittany Lions further up the rankings in pursuit of their first College Football playoff appearance.
The Nittany Lions are led by senior Quarterback Sean Clifford. Clifford has been efficient in his fourth year as the Penn State starting quarterback – completing 62% of his passes and throwing only 2 interceptions. He's thrown for 1030 yards and 9 touchdowns while adding 4 scores on the ground. He's the definition of a game manager. While Clifford may not light defenses up for 400 yards and multiple touchdowns, he puts the Nittany Lions in positions to win football games by relying on his run game and his three premier targets. His experience is certainly something to keep in mind when making a Penn State-Michigan prediction given the hostile environment.
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Penn State runs for just under 200 yards per game on the back of two four-star freshman running backs. Leading rushing Nicholas Singleton leads the team with 63 rushes for 463 yards and 5 touchdowns. Singleton was the 3rd ranked running back in last year's recruiting class and has drawn comparisons to previous Penn State phenoms, Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders. While he isn't on that level yet, Singleton's 7.3 yards per carry (2nd in the Big 10) has certainly turned some heads.
His backfield mate Kaytron Allen has been nearly as impressive. The 10th-ranked running back in last year's class has run 57 times for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. He's been getting more involved as the season's worn on – culminating in a 21-carry performance last week. Both young backs have quickly cemented themselves as premier threats in the conference and for Penn State to cover they'll need them to continue their strong play against a stingy Michigan defense.
Why Michigan Could Cover The Spread
Michigan has been a machine this year, outscoring teams by an average of 43 to 11. They have an explosive run game and an elite defense. Last year's Big 10 champs have looked the part of defending champs, although this will be their biggest test of the season. This week is Michigan's first-ranked opponent of the year.
Despite senior quarterback Cade McNamara leading the Wolverines to a College Football playoff appearance last season, he's been promptly supplanted by last year's backup JJ McCarthy. Although McNamara was efficient as a game manager last year, McCarthy's shown flashes of elite talent. The 2nd-ranked quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class has started each of the past 5 games after riding the pine in week 1. In those games, McCarthy has thrown for 1152 yards and 9 touchdowns while completing 78.3% of his passes – the highest percentage in the country. Although McCarthy has the ability to make plays with his legs, he's primarily relied on his arm this season. McCarthy raises the Wolverines' ceiling tremendously but his job isn't to win the game for Michigan – perhaps just not lose it. That's because the Michigan offense revolves around star running back Blake Corum.
Corum is in the midst of a breakout season but will be tasked with a stout Penn State defensive front. Corum has run for 735 yards on 118 carries and has already matched his season total from last year with 11 touchdowns. He's been a workhorse in the last three weeks, running 30, 29, and 25 times, respectively. Corum is coming off a solid showing against Indiana in which he ran for 124 yards and a score. Despite Penn State's great run defense, expect Corum to continue his success on the ground in a home matchup.
Final Penn State-Michigan Prediction & Pick
Neither Penn State nor Michigan has faced serious competition this year, but that all changes in this top-10 matchup. While the Nittany Lions have been better than expected, the Wolverines only being a touchdown favorite at home is crazy. Ride Michigan this week and reap the rewards.
Final Penn State-Michigan Prediction & Pick: Michigan Wolverines -6.5 (-120)
