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This weekend, college football fans will be treated to a potential contender for Game of the Year as Penn State travels to Columbus for a showdown with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Elsewhere, the Tennessee Volunteers are preparing for their most important and challenging game of the year as they head to Tuscaloosa to face off against Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Take a look at our college football odds series with our top college football picks for Week 8.
Here are the Week 8 college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Penn State at Ohio State
Penn State Nittany Lions: +5.5 (-118) ML (+164)
Ohio State Buckeyes: -5.5 (-104) ML (-200)
This could be a Game of the Year contender, and some really interesting storylines are emerging for bettors to consider. Ohio State certainly has the edge at wide receiver thanks to All-World superstar Marvin Harrison Jr., and they also have a smaller advantage at quarterback. Both teams have excellent defenses, and both teams will get after the opposing quarterback. If the Buckeyes had C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields under center this weekend, I think they’d justifiably be double-digit favorites.
Kyle McCord isn’t bad by any means, but he’s just not that guy, not yet at least. He needs to elevate his play, and if he makes one crucial mistake the Nittany Lions can capitalize and potentially win this game.
I think the Buckeyes will win this game, and I think if they win they will cover the spread. I don’t see a scenario where Ryan Day’s team wins by 4 or fewer points. I think there’s about a 50% chance the Buckeyes win and cover, a 10% chance the Lions cover but don’t win, and a 40% chance the Lions win outright. With the Nittany Lions moneyline representing an implied probability of just 37% that Penn State wins, I see value in this bet.
College Football Pick: Penn State moneyline (+164)
College Football Odds: Tennessee at Alabama
Tennessee Volunteers: +8.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide: -8.5 (-110)
Truthfully, I don’t love either team in this matchup but I think backing Tennessee with the points gives you a slight edge.
Both of these teams have talent across the field, both teams are well-coached, and both teams have inconsistent quarterbacks. In my mind, this matchup simply comes down to which quarterback protects the ball, makes fewer mistakes, and makes a small number of key plays at essential moments throughout the game.
Jalen Milroe throws a beautiful deep ball, but he struggles immensely elsewhere and I think you’ll see a lot of safety help over the top as with plenty of quarters coverage to limit his ability to throw down the field, which will force him to look elsewhere. Tennesse’s defense will have to capitalize on these mistakes when they happen, which I believe the Volunteers will do. If they do this successfully, they can keep the game within striking distance. I think ultimately Alabama will win, but in my estimation, the final score will be closer than many people expect.
College Football Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (-110)
College Football Odds: Texas at Houston
Texas: -22.5 (-118) Over 60.5 (-115)
Houston: +22.5 (-104) Under 60.5 (-105)
Texas is a heavy favorite in this game, and rightfully so, but I don’t trust them enough to back them by 20+ points against a quietly quality Houston team, especially when they will be playing on Houston’s home turf. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks, which means they will each be well prepared. Houston is a scrappy team with enough talent to hang around for a while, and I think that they’ll find a way to put the ball in the end zone at least twice, possibly three times, and maybe kick a field goal or two for good measure. That puts them right around 18-20 points, possibly a little higher.
I don’t think Houston is good enough on defense to really slow down Texas’ high-flying offense, which has scored 30 or more points in every game that they’ve played this season, but I don’t think they’ll be a complete turnstile either.
I’m anticipating Texas to score right around their average, so I’ll pencil them in for between 34-37 points.
My prediction for the high end of Texas’ potential victory margin is 37-14, with a low end of 34-24. It would take both teams scoring on the high end of my projections, a final score of 37-24, to cash the over, and that would only hit by one point. Also, most of my estimates fall within the 22.5-point range for Houston to cover the spread.
College Football Pick: Houston +22.5 (-104); Under 60.5 (-105)
