UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 is back in Las Vegas as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. UFC legend Edson Barboza of Brazil will take on Jalin Turner of Texas in what should be an exciting scrap. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Barboza-Turner prediction and pick.
Edson Barboza (24-13) is 18-13 inside the UFC since 2010, most recently dropping a unanimous decision loss to Drakkar Klose at UFC 319 earlier this summer. With his 40th birthday coming up in just a month, Barboza will look to add another win to his illustrious career. He stands 5-foot-11 with a 75-inch reach.
Jalin Turner (14-9) has gone 7-6 inside the UFC since 2018. He's lost back-to-back fights heading into this one, both coming by way of finish against Renato Moicano and Ignacio Bahamondes. He'll look to bounce back as the betting favorite against a UFC great. Turner stands 6-foot-3 with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Edson Barboza-Jalin Turner Odds
Edson Barboza: +240
Jalin Turner: -298
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
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Why Edson Barboza Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Drakkar Klose – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Despite looking great heading into his last fight, Edson Barboza fell slightly behind in the striking numbers (147-73) to Drakkar Klose and ended up losing the bout following a valiant effort in the third round. Despite nearing his 40th birthday, Edson Barboza still has all the tools necessary for winning at this level and he clearly still has a desire to compete under the brightest lights. Against a fellow striker like Jalin Turner, Barboza should have an opportunity to turn things loose against his opponent.
Barboza will have the slight advantage in hand speed during this fight and if he's able to get Turner dropping his hands from the body shots, it will open his opportunities to land damage to the head. While Barboza will be working with a noticeable height disadvantage, he can mitigate the distance by landing low calf kicks and extending his combinations on the feet.
All in all, Edson Barboza is a dangerous opponent for everyone to face and if he's able to find his “flow state” in the striking, Jalin Turner will have to walk through some combinations to make this a dog fight. Although he's listed as the moderate underdog, don't sleep on Barboza's ability to turn any fight into a technical scrap inside the pocket.
Why Jalin Turner Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ignacio Bahamondes – SUB (triangle choke, R1)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Jalin Turner's last four losses have come against the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Dan Hooker, Renato Moicano, and Ignacio Bahamondes. Each opponent is at the top of their game and although Jalin Turner had a fair shot in each, he hasn't been able to build any recent momentum by stacking up wins. This fight against Barboza is the perfect opportunity to prove to himself that there's still a place for him within the rankings of this division.
Jalin Turner's biggest advantage, as is the case with most of his fights, will be his freakish length and reach for the division. There's a reason he's called “the Tarantula” and if he's able to utilize the reach, he should be able to keep Barboza's aggressive striking at-bay. Turner also has very long legs and can snap his leg kicks in a flash, so expect him to return fire promptly if Barboza begins hacking at his legs.
Turner is the more versatile athlete and with a 75% takedown defense, is welcome to keep this fight on the feet against a classically-trained Muay Thai artist like Barboza. Be aware of Turner's offense along the fence as he's been able to use his long arms to sink chokes from a standing position. If he finds his back against the fence, Turner could use his height over the top of Barboza to threaten potential chokes if they're open.
Final Edson Barboza-Jalin Turner Prediction & Pick
This should be another fun scrap on the Early Prelims as both fighters will be more than willing to keep this one on the feet. Edson Barboza is certainly the more technical striker, but he hasn't been able to land significant damage on opponents over his last few appearances. Jalin Turner, on the other hand, is desperate for a win with a 1-4 record in his last five fights against tough competition.
If this fight remains exclusively on the feet, Jalin Turner will have the slight advantage thanks to his leverage and power. However, Barboza finds success from forward pressure and suffocating opponents with his striking output, so it'll be interesting to see which fight is leading the dance in terms of forward movement.
I expect Jalin Turner to circle around the cage as Barboza walks him down, landing intermittent strikes and slipping out of range. Both fighters will land their fair share of offense, but in the end it's Jalin Turner with the cleaner performance on the feet. We'll side with the over for a more confident pick.
Final Edson Barboza-Jalin Turner Prediction & Pick: Jalin Turner (-298); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-105)
