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UFC Vegas 107 is reaching its apex as we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the Main Event bout taking place atop the Women's Flyweight (125) Division. No. 4-ranked Erin Blanchfield of New Jersey will take on No. 5 Maycee Barber of Wisconsin. Check the UFC odds series for our Blanchfield-Barber prediction and pick.
Erin Blanchfield (13-2) has gone 7-1 inside the UFC since 2021, slowly climbing her way to the top of the rankings. After a six-fight winning streak, she suffered her first promotional loss to Manon Fiorot, but bounced back recently with a win in her last bout. She'll hope for an eventual title shot with just a few more wins. Blanchfield stands 5-foot-4 with a 66-inch reach.
Maycee Barber (14-2) has gone 9-2 inside the UFC since 2018. She's currently riding a six-fight winning streak with recent wins over Amanda Ribas and Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian). This will be the toughest test of her career, and with a win, it could propel her into the title conversation. Barber stands 5-foot-5 with a 65-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 107 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 107 Odds: Erin Blanchfield-Maycee Barber Odds
Erin Blanchfield: -238
Maycee Barber: +195
Over 4.5 rounds: -220
Under 4.5 rounds: +170
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Why Erin Blanchfield Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Rose Namajunas – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Erin Blanchfield responded in a massive way during her last win over Rose Namajunas, answering the call and putting away another former champion with relative ease. She's always been known as a dangerous submission artist who's been training jiu jitsu her whole life, but Blanchfield continues to evolve as a consistent boxer and can certainly take a punch in the pocket.
During this fight, Blanchfield will be met with another aggressive and high-output striker in Barber, so she'll have to be wary and not give in to a chaotic fight. While Blanchfield certainly performs well under pressure, it would benefit her to be the more methodical striker while looking to take the fight to the ground.
Blanchfield will see a massive advantage on the ground with her top control if she's able to get into that position. From there, she's very effective in transitioning her submission attempts and keeping opponents defensive. It'll be only a matter of time before Barber makes a mistake and Blanchfield can capitalize on one of her go-to submissions from the top.
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Why Maycee Barber Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Katlyn Cerminara – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Maycee Barber hasn't dropped a UFC fight since 2021, and this six-fight run she's been on has been truly impressive. Three of the wins have come by way of unanimous decision with a ground-and-pound finish over Amanda Ribas as well. She's dialed in her striking techniques and blitzes opponents with reckless abandon. She's also a very technical kickboxer and can hit her marks consistently and quickly.
When looking at her two most recent fights in particular, Barber got off to a fast start and kept her foot on the gas once sensing retreat from her opponents. She managed to out-strike her last opponent 122-99 and can take a shot herself, so expect output to be the name of the game for Barber in this fight.
With her takedown defense at 53%, Barber will stand a solid chance to keep this fight on the feet where she's most comfortable. She also has never been finished in her professional career, which is crucial when considering she'll be in defensive positions on the ground. If Barber can manage to create the bigger moments on the feet, she should be able to come out an underdog winner.
Final Erin Blanchfield-Maycee Barber Prediction & Pick
We'll see another high-level fight in the Strawweight Division as both women are jockeying for a potential title shot. Erin Blanchfield has seen better competition as of late, but Maycee Barber has been trending in the right direction and has six-straight wins since 2021.
If Barber presses forward and is more active with her striking, we can give her a slight edge in that department thanks to her output. Erin Blanchfield will be under some pressure during this one, but she's shown a solid ability to move out of the way and create space under duress.
Still, we have to give the overall advantage to Erin Blanchfield with her boxing skills constantly evolving and her grappling being the true equalizer in most of her fights. She hasn't used it much as of late, but I expect Erin Blanchfield to return to her roots and finish this fight on the ground.
Final Erin Blanchfield-Maycee Barber Prediction & Pick: Erin Blanchfield (-238), Under 4.5 Rounds (+170)
