The UFC 323 Prelims are heating up from Las Vegas as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division. Ranked contenders will meet as No. 5 Maycee Barber of Wisconsin takes on No. 9 Karine Silva of Brazil. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Carolina-Montague prediction and pick.
Maycee Barber (14-2) has gone 9-2 inside the UFC since 2018, currently riding an impressive winning streak of six fights. Her most recent victory came via unanimous decision over veteran Katlyn Cerminara, her third UD-win in her last five fights. She'll look to keep streaking as the betting favorite here. Barber stands 5-foot-5 with a 65-inch reach.
Karine Silva (19-5) is currently 5-1 under the UFC since 2022. After suffering her first promotional loss to Viviane Araujo, she bounced back with a unanimous win over Dione Barbosa. Coming in as the betting underdog for the first time, she'll hope to jump the rankings with a win. Silva stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Maycee Barber-Karine Silva Odds
Maycee Barber: -185
Karine Silva: +154
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Maycee Barber Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Katlyn Cerminara – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Maycee Barber has had trouble making an appearance leading up to this fight, pulling out of her bout against Rose Namajunas to undisclosed reasons and failing to be medically cleared in her recent bout against Erin Blanchfield. The hope is that Maycee Barber will be in full health and able to make the walk in this one as she'll have to defend her ranking against a hungry competitor. While she also rides a winning streak, she'll need to prove herself in her return to action.
Maycee Barber is strong in all areas of a fight and her most impressive strength could be her relentless pressure and willingness to walk through her opponents' punches. She's extremely gritty in closing the distance and isn't afraid to mix things up with her wrestling on the ground. Barber is also very crafty along the fence and can force opponents into bad spots from there as well.
Barber will also have a striking advantage over Silva in landing 4.7 significant strikes per minute to Silva's 2.73. Barber also has the more effective takedown defense at 53% to Silva's 11%, so it'll be interesting to see if her offensive wrestling and takedowns become part of the game plan. Either way, she'll have to make adjustments to a dynamic opponent like Silva.
Why Karine Silva Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dione Barbosa – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Karine Silva secured the win at UFC 319 over Dione Barbosa, but it was certainly a much closer fight than the ‘unanimous decision' ruling indicated. She allowed her opponent to connect most of the fight, but the punches weren't enough to deter Silva from continuing her pressure. Her defense was also solid against an active opponent and she showed an ability to remain consistent over the course of three rounds.
Despite the win, Karine Silva has also started relatively slow during her last two fights, taking her time to gauge her opponent and find the striking range. Upon her UFC arrival, Silva saw a ton of success in walking opponents down and immediately chasing the takedown and submission in the first round. Clearly, the competition level has gone up, but Silva should look to get back to her roots in relentless closing distance, taking her opponent down, and working positions towards a submission attempt.
Silva's striking has improved with each fight in the UFC and she's looking more comfortable defending herself in the striking pocket. It'll take a complete performance for her to get the win, but Silva is fully capable as she's shown signs of championship potential in the past.
Final Maycee Barber-Karine Silva Prediction & Pick
Both fighters offer a very similar style with their smothering grappling and ability to chase the submissions. Neither side is particularly fluid with their striking on the feet, but both of these flyweights are willing to stand and trade shots from close distance. Maycee Barber is certainly the more active fighter on the feet, but Karine Silva sports the clear advantage on the ground with her dominant grappling.
Maycee Barber should be able to land on a decent amount of her strikes during this fight, but I expect Silva to initiate the grappling if Barber starts peppering her on the feet. From there, Silva's strength will be too great for Barber to do much, earning Silva significant control on the ground.
Whether or not someone's able to finish the fight is not too likely, so expect a very gritty, back-and-forth scrap between these two for three rounds. The decision could be a tight one, but we'll side with Karine Silva to get the win as the underdog. She's a strong matchup for Barber from a physical standpoint and her improved skill set should be a great challenge to the streaking opponent.
Final Maycee Barber-Karine Silva Prediction & Pick: Karine Silva (+154); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-260)
