The UFC is back in the world's fight capital of Las Vegas, Nevada as the UFC 323 Early Prelims continue with this next bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Mansur Abdul-Malik of Maryland will take on Brazil's Antonio Trocoli in the card's most lopsided ebetting line. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Abdul-Malik-Trocoli prediction and pick.
Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-1) has gone 2-0-1 inside the UFC since 2024. After two dominant wins via knockout, Abdul-Malik saw his win over Cody Brundage overturned to a ‘Draw' per the Georgia State Athletic Commission. Now, he'll get another chance at a previously scheduled opponent in Trocoli. Abdul-Malik stands 6-foot-2 with a 79.5-inch reach.
Antonio Trocoli (12-5) is still searching for his first UFC win with an 0-2 record in 2024. He's been tasked with very tough opponents in Shara Magomedov and Tresean Gore, but his road won't get much easier as the card's biggest betting underdog. Trocoli stands 6-foot-5 with an 80-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Odds
Mansur Abdul-Malik: -1150
Antonio Trocoli: +650
Over 1.5 rounds: +150
Under 1.5 rounds: -195
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Why Mansur Abdul-Malik Will Win
- Last Fight: (D) Cody Brundage – DRAW (result overturned)
- Last 5: 4-0-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Mansur Abdul-Malik saw a strange finish to his last fight as he was originally given the unanimous decision after a dominant three rounds. However, there was an accidental headbutt initiated by Abdul-Malik, which clearly dazed Brundage in the process. The Georgia Athletic Commission ruled “protocol error” in during the evaluation and break time Brundage was given. Despite the draw on his record, Abdul-Malik was still winning the bout convincingly and would have likely won if the foul had never occurred.
He'll have a chance to redeem himself against Antonio Trocoli, who he was originally scheduled to fight last February due to Trocoli dropping out. He'll have another crack at the willing striker as Abdul-Malik will be looking for an emphatic knockout in this one. His hands have proved to be devastating during his brief professional run and he's notched all of his wins by finish. During this fight, finding the knockout with his hands will be the clearest path to victory.
Still, Trocoli is a dangerous opponent and Abdul-Malik will want to avoid mixing things up on the ground. He's much faster with his hands striking at range and despite not having a reach advantage here, will do a much better job of controlling the distance opposite his opponent. With an 82% takedown defense, look for Mansur Abdul-Malik to be in the driver's seat during this fight.
Why Antonio Trocoli Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Tresean Gore – SUB (standing guillotine, R1)
- Last 5: 2-2-0-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Antonio Trocoli hasn't had an easy run up to this point and could have his back against the wall if he's unable to secure his first UFC win in four appearances. He's incredibly gifted from a physical standpoint and has shown flashes of great athletic ability. Prior to the UFC, Trocoli was extremely dangerous with his submission grappling and was the dominant fighter in most of his matchups. However, since seeing UFC-level competition, Trocoli hasn't quite been able to put things together fluidly.
He'll certainly have the grappling advantage during this fight, but his previous bouts suggest he may have trouble finding the takedown and getting the fight to the ground. Trocoli should look to press Abdul-Malik along the fence to negate some of his offense. From there, Trocoli could prove to be the stronger fighter keeping his opponent in the clinch and landing shots from there.
Ultimately, Trocoli will have to look much better than he's been in the past. His striking defense is awfully low at just 23% and he can't afford to be absorbing 67% of the shots coming back his way, especially at Middleweight. Trocoli's only chance to win this fight will be behind a masterful defensive effort.
Final Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are capable of the flashy finish and although underdog Antonio Trocoli will have a submission advantage during this matchup, the -1150 favorite in Mansur Abdul-Malik has shown much better consistency up to this point. Following a recent ‘draw' ruling, he'll have some added motivation to finish this fight with an exciting knockout.
Mansur Abdul-Malik lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy. With the lack of defense from Antonio Trocoli, evident of his previous fights, I don't see a situation where Abdul-Malik isn't able to land clean and put this fight to an end. Expect this to be a quick finish, likely cashing the total under.
Final Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Prediction & Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1150); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-195)
