The UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Main Card is finally here as we kick things off with a betting prediction and pick inside the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Former champion and No. 5 Jan Blachowicz of Poland will take on rising No. 11 Bogdan Buskov representing Uzbekistan. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Blachowicz-Guskov prediction and pick.
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) has gone 12-8-1 inside the UFC since 2014 en route to holding a title belt. Following a controversial ‘draw' to Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant belt in 2022, Blachowicz has dropped back-to-back fights looking to bounce back in this one as the slight favorite. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.
Bogdan Guskov (18-3) is 4-1 since his 2023 arrival to the UFC. While he dropped his debut fight against Volkan Oezdemir, Guskov has since won all four of his following fights by finish (3 KO, 1 SUB) and is looking to jump the rankings once again. Guskov stands 6-foot-3 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Jan Blachowicz-Bogdan Guskov Odds
Jan Blachowicz: -125
Bodgan Guskov: +105
Over 2.5 rounds: +114
Under 2.5 rounds: -145
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Why Jan Blachowicz Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Carlos Ulberg – U DEC
- Last 5: 1-3-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
While Jan Blachowicz may seem on the downswing with two losses and a draw over his last three fights, the former champ has been tasked with the likes of Ankalaev, Pereira, and Ulberg during that stretch. He took Alex Pereira to a split decision and although he looked a bit flat against Carlos Ulberg, he managed to avoid the finish as he gave himself a chance on the scorecards. Despite the losses, Jan Blachowicz is still one of the most skilled light heavyweights on the planet and the rightful favorite coming into this fight.
In taking his last three opponents to a decision, it could be the clearest path to victory against a finisher like Guskov. Guskov has shown great ability inside the first round, but he hasn't seen a third round since 2019 as an amateur, so Blachowicz will certainly benefit from dragging this fight out and testing his opponent's cardio.
The low leg kicks are always a massive theme for Blachowicz in each fight, but people tend to sleep on his dominant grappling control, especially if he can find a favorable position. He has great submission capabilities and can do all the little things to frustrate Guskov and turn this into a dirtier fight than his opponent is comfortable with.
Why Bogdan Guskov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nikita Krylov – TKO (right hand, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Bogdan Guskov has been on a tear through this division, wasting no time against opponents as he immediately commands the center of the cage. He's very rangy with his striking and he's able to close distance in a hurry. He's also not afraid to absorb punches and has shown a solid chin up to this point, but it's historically unwise to allow Blachowicz clean punches. Guskov's defense and movement will certainly have to improve if he wants to defeat a former champion with the type of experience Blachowicz has.
Guskov is also crafty with submissions of his own, favoring the guillotine choke with his long arms both on the ground and along the fence. He hasn't been tested much from a wrestling standpoint thanks to his decisive striking, but he could certainly need to work on his game heading into this particular matchup.
The biggest question for Guskov will be whether he can survive a third round if they make it there. He's been stellar inside of two rounds, but even then we've seen him struggle to gather his cardio and keep a consistent pace. Guskov will have to have a backup plan if he's unable to finish Blachowicz in the first half of the fight.
Final Jan Blachowicz-Bogdan Guskov Prediction & Pick
This will be a very interesting meeting as the veteran and former champ Jan Blachowicz defends his ranking against the exciting, dangerous prospect Bogdan Guskov. Guskov has won his last four fights inside of two rounds, but Jan Blachowicz just managed to take Ulberg, Ankalaev, and Pereira to a decision.
I fully expect this fight to see the distance as it's unlikely Guskov lands enough clean combinations to truly put Blachowicz away. While he may hurt him, Blachowicz will find a way to extend this fight, to which he should take control of in the third round with his grappling. The second round will be the closest in my opinion, assuming Guskov comes out firing in the first.
Ultimately, Jan Blachowicz should have the resiliency to survive the first round and turn the pressure up during the second and third rounds. Let's roll with the favorite to win by decision.
Final Jan Blachowicz-Bogdan Guskov Prediction & Pick: Jan Blachowicz (-125); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+114)
