Contender Series Week 7 kicks off with a fight between Jair de Oliveira and Rafael Tobias in the light heavyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Oliveira-Tobias prediction and pick.
Jair de Oliveira (6-0) enters Tuesday undefeated with six first-round finishes, including a recent TKO victory over Daniel Bucher in May 2024 via retirement. The Brazilian “Mamute” finished Alisson Deivid with a head kick in September 2023. However, his opposition level remains questionable, facing fighters with poor combined records.
Rafael Tobias (13-1) enters Week 7 after two impressive wins: a TKO over Wellington Lopes in April 2025 and a first-round TKO over Marcelo Nunez in August 2024. His lone defeat came via knockout to Miguel Porto in LFA, highlighting vulnerabilities against higher-caliber opponents.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Jair de Oliveira-Rafael Tobias Odds
Jair de Oliveira: +310
Rafael Tobias: -445
Over 1.5 Rounds: +210
Under 1.5 Rounds: -280
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Why Jair de Oliveira will win
- Last Fight: (W) Daniel Bucher – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 (4 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
De Oliveira’s explosive knockout power is the biggest factor favoring him Tuesday. Four of his six wins have come by way of TKO, all within the first round, including head-kick and punches stoppages against durable opposition. His relentless forward pressure and fast hands allow him to overwhelm opponents from the opening bell.
Tobias has shown strong offense but leaves defensive openings, especially early in fights, where Oliveira’s blitzes shine. If Tobias overcommits or gets too aggressive, Oliveira’s counter-punching and fight-altering power put him in danger of being finished quickly.
While there are questions about Oliveira’s experience against elite grapplers, Tobias is susceptible to heavy strikers who can interrupt his rhythm. Oliveira’s proven finishing instincts and aggression often force mistakes, and he thrives in high-adrenaline exchanges.
Should de Oliveira land early, he could either end the fight with one clean shot or put Tobias on the defensive, taking away his ability to dictate range or tempo. In a matchup with two finishers, Oliveira’s high-velocity striking and knockout artistry give him the power to derail Tobias and announce himself on the biggest stage.
Why Rafael Tobias will win
- Last Fight: (W) Wellington Lopes – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 (5 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Rafael Tobias enters Week 7 as the favorite due to his blend of high-volume striking and powerful finishing ability, which is emblematic of the Chute Boxe style. Tobias stalks opponents with calculated aggression, unleashing heavy combinations and damaging leg kicks that can immobilize foes like de Oliveira.
Tobias is not just a striker—his submission arsenal is dangerous, with multiple wins by choke against solid opposition. De Oliveira’s most recent loss highlighted his susceptibility to grappling, a weakness Tobias can exploit if the fight hits the mat.
While Tobias can sometimes leave himself open when pressing forward, his offensive output and diversified attack make him difficult to counter. De Oliveira’s knockout power is real, but his tendency to struggle in grappling exchanges and his inconsistent defensive awareness are glaring issues in this matchup.
Tobias’s overall finishing instincts, high-level training camp, and ability to dictate fight geography give him a clear edge. If he maintains patience and picks his shots, Tobias should find an opening to either secure a stoppage or convincingly outwork de Oliveira over three rounds.
Final Jair de Oliveira-Rafael Tobias Prediction & Pick
Rafael Tobias enters Tuesday’s matchup as the larger, more physically imposing athlete with a 13-1 record and strong grappling credentials. He immediately looks to impose his size, driving de Oliveira back with strikes and shooting for clinch takedowns when the opportunity arises. Tobias uses his bodylock, heavy top pressure, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu to frustrate Oliveira’s offensive rhythm and sap his explosive energy.
When Tobias gets the fight to the mat, he advances position methodically, threatening submissions and landing damaging ground-and-pound. De Oliveira tries to explode back to his feet, but Tobias’s wrestling base and ability to hold position are key advantages. The longer the fight stays on the canvas, the more Tobias neutralizes Oliveira’s one-punch knockout power and frustrates his attempts to get in space.
In the pocket, Tobias’s durability and willingness to trade are tested, but he rolls with shots or resets the position before de Oliveira can build momentum. Although both men are dangerous in the opening exchanges, Tobias’s calculated aggression and wrestling first approach help him control the pace and dictate ring geography.
Ultimately, Tobias’s path is clear: close the distance, score early takedowns, and methodically work for a submission or a dominant decision. Expect a decisive win by Tobias, either via first-round submission or lopsided control over three rounds.
Final Jair de Oliveira-Rafael Tobias Prediction & Pick: Rafael Tobias (-445), Under 1.5 Rounds (-280)
