UFC 321 is finally here from Yas Island, UAE as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for the opening bout of the night taking place in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Brazil's Jaqueline Amorim will take on Mizuki Inoue of Japan. Check our UFC odds series for the Amorim-Mizuki prediction and pick.
Jaqueline Amorim (10-1) has gone 4-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2023. Since losing her debut via unanimous decision, Amorim has been able to bounce back with four consecutive victories (1 TKO, 3 SUB). She'll come in as the stern betting favorite looking for another win. Amorim stands 5-foot-3 with a 68-inch reach.
Mizuki Inoue (15-6) has gone 2-1 inside the UFC from 2019-2023. She'll be returning to action for the first time following a 25-month layoff due to a torn ACL. Now, she'll look to bounce back and make another mark on the promotion in her return. Inoue stands 5-foot-3 with a 65.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Jaqueline Amorim-Mizuki Inoue Odds
Jaqueline Amorim: -425
Mizuki Inoue: +330
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Jaqueline Amorim Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Polyana Viana – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Jaqueline Amorim makes her return following a most recent submission victory over Polyana Viana thanks to a rear naked choke. During the fight, Amorim managed to be the more aggressive side and was able use her dominant grappling against a less experienced opponent on the ground. Her opponent here is even more of a grappling threat, but Amorim has been much more active and should have more momentum on her side.
Amorim is still learning to mix her striking effectively with her grappling, but her all-around aggression and willingness to go after her opponent could be the key to winning this fight. Given Mizuki's long layoff from the sport, Amorim should look to give her an unkind welcome as she pressures her throughout the whole fight.
Amorim is the rightful betting favorite here and if we see any signs of ring rust or hesitation out of Inoue, Amorim should be able to finish this fight rather convincingly. Her best path to victory will be competing on the ground while keeping her opponent at a safe and manageable striking distance.
Why Mizuki Inoue Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Hannah Goldy – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 SUB
Mizuki Inoue's last appearance in the UFC came when she dominated Hannah Goldy for three rounds in 2023. The victory, however, came with a toll as Inoue suffered a torn ACL and has been on the shelf for the last 25 months. While she would have liked to return sooner, it's clear that she's been waiting to be 100% healthy and ready to compete at the highest level.
Mizuki Inoue is a grappling phenom and she's been able to pin her skills up against some of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the world. Prior to her injury, she was incredibly flexible and creative in finding submission attempts from everywhere on the ground. We're hoping she's back to full health and willing to mix things up on the ground once again, searching for another likely submission.
Inoue is the rightful underdog in this fight and there's truly no way of telling how she'll look in the cage following such a significant layoff from the sport. If she's able to look the same, or better than she previously did, she should be a live underdog during this fight.
Final Jaqueline Amorim-Mizuki Inoue Prediction & Pick
We should have a fun fight on our hands as both women are extremely skilled and aggressive with their ground control and submission grappling. Between the two of them, they own 17 total wins by submission and will both be threats to finish this fight on the ground.
Following her debut loss, Jaqueline Amorim has been a steamroller with her aggressive grappling and willingness to seek the finish. Mizuki Inoue fights with a similar style, but there's no telling how she'll look following such a long layoff from the sport. While we're not hoping for her to be rusty, returning to the cage on Saturday could come with some growing pains for Inoue.
For our final betting prediction, we're going to roll with Jaqueline Amorim to get the win as she finds another finish. While she's not likely to stop a powerful grappler like Mizuki, she should be able to control this fight on the feet and earn the bigger moments in hurting her opponent. The betting favorite wins this fight convincingly.
Final Jaqueline Amorim-Mizuki Inoue Prediction & Pick: Jaqueline Amorim (-425); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+110)
