UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett continues on the main card with the main event between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC Lightweight Championship on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gaethje-Pimblett prediction and pick.
Justin Gaethje (26-5) rebounded from his brutal last-second BMF knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 with a gritty unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev in their 2025 rematch, reaffirming his elite lightweight status as he comes into his fight this weekend against Paddy Pimblett.
Paddy Pimblett (23-3) rides a seven-fight surge, surging into contention after stopping Michael Chandler with third-round elbows at UFC 314 and previously submitting King Green and outworking Tony Ferguson. The surging Scouser brings undefeated UFC momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Justin Gaethje.
Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 324 odds: Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett odds
Justin Gaethje: +195
Paddy Pimblett: -238
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
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Why Justin Gaethje will win
- Last Fight: (W) Rafael Fiziev – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 21 (19 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Justin Gaethje can beat Paddy Pimblett by weaponizing experience and attritional violence in a way Pimblett has never faced. Gaethje’s elite low kicks, pressure boxing and durability punish upright, hittable strikers who need rhythm and space.
Gaethje’s 6.59 SLpM and proven leg-kick system are designed to cripple movement and force desperate entries. Against an aggressive but defensively porous Pimblett, that means extended exchanges where Gaethje’s power and combinations land cleaner, earlier and more often.
Pimblett’s best path is dragging Gaethje into wild scrambles where his 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes can matter. However, Gaethje’s 68% takedown defense and strong balance make sustained control difficult, especially while compromised by leg damage.
Over three rounds, that dynamic favors Gaethje imposing his pace, chopping the legs, and forcing Paddy into increasingly slower, riskier entries. In that scenario, Gaethje’s power, accuracy and body of elite opposition suggest either a late TKO or a clear decision on damage.
Why Paddy Pimblett will win
- Last Fight: (W) Michael Chandler – KO?TKO R3
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 19 (8 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Paddy Pimblett can beat Justin Gaethje by turning this into a cardio and scramble-heavy fight rather than a classic Gaethje brawl. Pimblett throws over 5 significant strikes per minute with 50%+ accuracy, which allows him to score while forcing Gaethje to work defensively.
More importantly, Pimblett’s 10 career submissions and transition-heavy grappling give him a clear edge once the fight hits the mat. Gaethje has been finished by submission twice in his five career losses, and extended scrambles could expose that vulnerability again.
If Pimblett uses his three-inch reach advantage, long kicks and jabs to draw out Gaethje’s counters, he can create chaotic clinch entries on his terms. From there, he thrives in rolling exchanges where guillotines, back-takes and triangles materialize in broken scrambles.
That style also taxes Gaethje’s gas tank, especially if leg-kick trades turn into prolonged grappling sequences instead of steady pressure boxing. Over three rounds, Pimblett’s momentum, finishing instincts on the mat and ability to steal swings of offense in scrambles could produce either a late submission or a decision built on control.
Final Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett prediction & pick
The lean here is slightly toward Justin Gaethje in a chaotic, high-damage fight. Paddy Pimblett enters as the betting favorite on the strength of his seven-fight UFC streak and submission threat, yet his defensive gaps remain a serious concern against this level of puncher.
Gaethje’s punishing low kicks, higher-end one-shot power, and experience in five-round wars with champions suggest he is better suited to win the decisive moments when both men are hurt. Pimblett’s chin-up entries and willingness to brawl in the pocket create exactly the exchanges where Gaethje has historically thrived.
Pimblett’s clearest path is to survive the early storm, force Gaethje into extended scrambles and hunt the back once leg-kick pressure overextends him. However, Gaethje’s 75% takedown defense and strong balance mean Pimblett likely has to eat serious damage just to get those looks consistently.
Expect wild momentum swings, but Gaethje’s attritional kicks and cleaner power shots should accumulate visible damage first. The prediction is Justin Gaethje by late TKO or a decision built on leg destruction and heavier moments, in a fight that still gives Pimblett flashes of success.
Final Justin Gaethje-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick: Justin Gaethje (+195), Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)
