The UFC 326 Prelims continue to heat up from Las Vegas as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Former TUF winner Ricky Turcios will take on the debuting Alberto Montes of Venezuela in what should be a fun fight. Check our UFC odds series for the Turcios-Montes prediction and pick.
Ricky Turcios (12-5) has gone 2-3 inside the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter Season Season 29 Finale. He's dropped back-to-back fights heading into this one as he searches for his first UFC win since 2022. Turcios stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Alberto Montes (10-1) will make his UFC debut following a successful Dana White's Contender Series finish via anaconda choke in the second round. He's had two fights cancelled in the lead-up to this one, so Montes is eager to debut as the betting favorite against Turcios. Montes stands 5-foot-7 with a 69-inch reach.
UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 326 Odds: Ricky Turcios-Alberto Montes Odds
Ricky Turcios: +160
Alberto Montes: -192
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Ricky Turcios Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bernardo Sopaj – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Ricky Turcios hasn't been on the winning side of things since 2022, offering a valiant effort against Bernardo Sopaj but ultimately coming up short on the striking numbers. For how active and talented Turcios has proven to be, his simply hasn't had any luck stringing together wins against increasingly difficult competition. His hope is that a debuting opponent could be the opportunity he needs to kickstart his run through the division once again.
Turcios is an extremely unorthodox fighter with varying stances and ability to throw punches and kicks at awkward angles. He doesn't discriminate between any particular skill set and is usually willing to utilize all of his techniques in trying to find a win. He's incredibly sneaky on the ground and has a tight squeeze when locking in submissions, so be wary of his grappling activity if Montes presents any openings.
The key in this fight for Turcios will be consistency and pushing a high pace against a debuting opponent. Turcios has been known to set a frantic fight pace behind a very established cardio base, so expect his endurance and durability to be a huge focal point in trying to overwhelm Montes.
Why Alberto Montes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Carlos Calderon – SUB (anaconda choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Alberto Montes will finally make his UFC debut after having to withdraw from his previously-schedule bout. Montes impressed with a dominant anaconda choke finish during Contender Series, his second consecutive win by the same submission method. On the ground, Montes presents a difficult challenge with his strong frame, something he'll be hoping to expose against Turcios to make up for his slight height and reach disadvantage.
Montes fights behind a tradition Muay Thai stance and often waits for his opponent to make first contact. He's very accurate with his counter-punching and has shown to generate great power when backing up, so expect Montes to try and catch Turcios leaning his head out in front during the exchanges. From there, we should see the accurate striking on display from Montes if Turcios' fails to keep his head moving.
Montes is very strong when it comes to the grappling as he displays great physical strength and ability to muscle through submissions to earn the finish. Turcios has fallen victim to a submission loss just once before in his career, but expect Montes to make a concerted effort in trying to take the back or finish this fight with a choke.
Final Ricky Turcios-Alberto Montes Prediction & Pick
We should have a very exciting jiu jitsu matchup on our hands if both men are willing to engage in the grappling. Ricky Turcios has proven to be much more technically sound on the ground than he is on the feet, but it may be in his best interest to force Montes into a scrappy boxing match on the feet. Turcios has great confidence in his chin and pushing a high pace, so expect Alberto Montes to full be tested during this UFC debut.
However, Montes has been too fundamentally sound during the lead-up to his debut and he's shown dominant flashes of submission grappling against solid opponents. I expect Montes to be throwing the harder shots during the exchanges and controlling the grappling flow if the fight hits the ground.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Alberto Montes to earn the finish late in this fight. Turcios should put forth a strong effort, but it'll eventually become too much for him to handle as Montes overwhelms with striking and grappling.
Final Ricky Turcios-Alberto Montes Prediction & Pick: Alberto Montes (-192); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+124)
