We're back once again with a betting prediction and pick for the UFC 326 Early Prelims as we head towards the Light Heavyweight (205) Division for this next bout. Brazil's Rafael Tobias takes on Kazakhstan's Diyar Nurgozhay as both fighters search for their first promotional win. Check our UFC odds series for the Tobias-Nurgozhay prediction and pick.
Rafael Tobias (14-1) makes his UFC debut on Saturday following a submission finish in the first round of his Dana White's Contender Series audition. He's won six consecutive bouts, finishing all but one inside the distance and heading into this debut the betting favorite. Tobias stands 6-foot-2 with a 74.5-inch reach.
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-2) still searches for his first UFC win following an 0-2 start since debuting in March 2025. He's dropped both bouts by way of submission and welcomes a debuting prospect, so Nurgozhay will be determined for the definitive win in this one. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach.
UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 326 Odds: Rafael Tobias-Diyar Nurgozhay Odds
Rafael Tobias: -205
Diyar Nurgozhay: +170
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
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Why Rafael Tobias Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jair de Oliveira – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Rafael Tobias showed off his grappling chops during his Dana White Contender Series audition, wasting no time in taking his opponents' back and finding the submission in the first round. Tobias is a brawler at heart, oftentimes opening the fight with his aggressive forward pressure and striking. However, he does so to open his grappling game and submission attempts, which is the part of the fight where he's most comfortable.
Clearly, betting lines have taken note of Tobias' rising stock in making him the moderate betting favorite during this debut fight. He's probably the more fluid grappler of the two fighters, particularly with his transition skills, but it's worth noting Nurgozhay sports a 100% takedown accuracy and takedown defense rate through his first two fights. This could be the toughest grappler Tobias has faced up to this point of his career, so it'll take a mistake-free effort for him to win this fight on the back of his wrestling.
Tobias' biggest advantage in this fight will be that he's equally comfortable standing and striking as every round opens up on the feet. We could see the wrestling cancel out and if Tobias abandon's the grappling early, he should be confident in his kickboxing to control this fight on the feet.
Why Diyar Nurgozhay Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Uran Satybaldiev – SUB (ezekiel choke, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Diyar Nurgozhay has seen a tough start to his UFC tenure with two decisive losses via submission inside of two rounds. He also notably missed weight during his UFC debut, so he'll certainly be on the hot seat as he tries to preserve his roster spot. Nurgozhay quickly became known for his dominant wrestling and ferocious ground-and-pound finishes, notching a head-kick finish during his DWCS fight. The talent is clearly there, but it'll all be about showing up on Saturday and delivering on his first win for Nurgozhay.
Despite the losses, neither of his opponents were able to even contest his wrestling skills, landing all of his three takedowns and defending all attempts as well. His defensive wrestling is the most impressive part of his game and many of his TKO wins have occurred after he was able to reverse position and pin his opponent. Expect for Nurgozhay to allow his opponent to take the first takedown shot while looking to reverse and end in top position.
Nurgozhay's clearest gap has been in his submission defense, so strategically defending on the ground had to have been a massive focal point of his training camp coming in.
Final Rafael Tobias-Diyar Nurgozhay Prediction & Pick
Fans will be treated to what should be another close matchup between two prospects looking for their first UFC win. Diyar Nurgozhay is hoping to finally cash-in on his DWCS contract with a win while Rafael Tobias comes in the hungry favorite in his debut.
In terms of defensive wrestling and wrestling transitions, we have to give Nurgozhay the edge as it's the skill set that got him up to this point. Rafael Tobias is extremely dangerous in his own right and can certainly threaten submissions as well, but I expect Nurgozhay to discourage the wrestling from Tobias largely throughout this fight.
From there, however, I expect Rafael Tobias to hold a significant advantage on the feet with his active striking. He's not afraid to utilize the clinch and from there, we've seen him extremely willing to throw knees and elbows inside. While I expect the wrestling from both sides to cancel each other out, Tobias' striking should be enough to put him over in a close bout.
Final Rafael Tobias-Diyar Nurgozhay Prediction & Pick: Rafael Tobias (-205); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-105)
