The UFC is back in action from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as UFC 326 opens with a scrap in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Brazil's Rodolfo Bellato will welcome the debuting Luke Fernandez of New Jersey. Check our UFC odds series for the Bellato-Fernandez prediction and pick.
Rodolfo Bellato (12-3-1) has gone 1-1-1-1 during his four fights in the UFC since earning a Contender Series berth in 2022. Aside from a win during his debut, Bellato has notched everything besides another W as he'll be looking to bounce back from a loss following “draw” and “no contest” rulings. Bellato stands 6-foot-3 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Luke Fernandez (6-0) makes his UFC debut on Saturday following a first-round knockout win at Dana White's Contender Series. He's undefeated during his fresh pro career, but already notched a title win at Cage Fury FC and is eager to bring his skill set onto the biggest stage. Fernandez stands 6-foot-1 with a 76.5-inch reach.
UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 326 Odds: Rodolfo Bellato-Luke Fernandez Odds
Rodolfo Bellato: +190
Luke Fernandez: -230
Over 1.5 rounds: -125
Under 1.5 rounds: -105
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Why Rodolfo Bellato Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Navajo Stirling – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-1-1-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Since winning his UFC debut with a resounding TKO over Ihor Potieria, Bellato fought towards a draw against Jimmy Crute, a ‘no contest' ruling against Paul Craig, and an outright loss against Navajo Stirling in his last fight. The Paul Craig decision was clearly out of Bellato's control due to an illegal upkick, but the indefinite decisions could be wearing on his confidence as he'll be an eager underdog to get back in the win column.
Bellato immediately threatens opponents with the power coming back from his punches as he's constantly loading up his right hand. Bellato will throw short left jabs before barely waiting to explode with his right hand. If he's able to break through the arm guard, he doesn't waste much time in closing the distance and attempting to finish the fight with his fists.
However, his aggressive style has left him exposed in previous fights and he's not impervious to getting caught himself. Expect a much more cautious approach out of him this time around as he tries to avoid the knockout, but he'll definitely have a chip on his shoulder as the underdog against a debuting opponent in Fernandez.
Why Luke Fernandez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Rafael Pergentino – TKO (ground punches, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Luke Fernandez managed to make a big statement on Dana White's Contender Series with a big TKO win, finishing all but one of his professional fights inside the distance. He's still very fresh into his career, but he's active outside the octagon in grappling exhibitions and clearly made a statement by winning and defending a Cage Fury title in the span of just a year. Look for Fernandez to make a big splash in the UFC as he's very far along in his progression compared to other prospects.
Luke Fernandez fights with a similar style to Bellato in the sense that he's constantly loading up the right hand and searching for the knockout punch. Fernandez, however, is the slightly more technical striker and could be the more accurate side if both men engage in chaotic exchanges. Fernandez also fights much lower in his stance, making him a much more difficult target to land clean on when he's bobbing and weaving inside the pocket.
To have success in this fight, Fernandez will have to approach the center of the octagon with patience as he shouldn't expect Bellato to engage with him immediately. This should be a methodical opening first minutes for Fernandez as he gauges the distance, but it shouldn't be long before these two meet and start trading.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Luke Fernandez Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts given both fighters have a similar style and are constantly chasing the knockout. Rodolfo Bellato will be hungry for a win following his recent string of questionable outcomes, while Luke Fernandez will be looking to make an even bigger impression following his DWCS win.
All the momentum here is on the side of Luke Fernandez and although Bellato is a solid talent, he hasn't been able to find any consistency since joining the UFC. Expect a number of chaotic exchanges where both fighters land, but I expect Fernandez' chin to hold up better by the mid-way point of this fight.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Luke Fernandez to get the win as this fight should see a patient first round with things opening up a bit in the second.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Luke Fernandez Prediction & Pick: Luke Fernandez (-230); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125)
