UFC 326: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Sumudaerji and Jesus Aguilar in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Sumudaerji-Aguilar prediction and pick.
Sumudaerji (18-7) has quietly built back-to-back momentum in 2025, first earning a split decision win over Mitch Raposo at UFC 314 in April, then following it up with a unanimous decision over Kevin Borjas at UFC Fight Night in August. The Chinese flyweight owns 13 career knockouts and 11 first-round finishes, making him one of the most dangerous finishers at 125 pounds. Now riding a two-fight win streak and looking to push further up the flyweight rankings, all eyes are on Sumudaerji as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jesus Aguilar.
Jesus Aguilar (12-3) has been on a tear lately, going 3-0 in the UFC with finishes that have turned heads at flyweight. The hard-hitting Mexican prospect most recently earned a second-round TKO stoppage, showcasing the heavy hands and relentless pressure that have become his trademark inside the Octagon. With 12 career wins and serious finishing ability, Aguilar enters this bout brimming with confidence as he comes into his fight this weekend against Sumudaerji.
UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 326 Odds: Sumudaerji-Jesus Aguilar Odds
Sumudaerji: -245
Jesus Aguilar: +200
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Sumudaerji Will Win
Sumudaerji brings a massive striking volume advantage into this flyweight matchup, landing 4.48 significant strikes per minute with a 52% accuracy rate that consistently piles up clean damage on opponents. His 72-inch reach is a significant physical asset at flyweight, allowing him to maintain distance and fire long straight shots before Aguilar can close the gap.
The key to Sumudaerji's path to victory is keeping this fight standing, and his 68% takedown defense gives him a realistic shot at doing exactly that. When Aguilar cannot get the fight to the mat, his striking output drops dramatically, as he averages only 2.65 significant strikes per minute on the feet.
Sumudaerji's recent momentum also cannot be ignored. After snapping a three-fight skid, he has now strung together back-to-back dominant wins, looking sharper and more composed than he has at any point in his UFC career. His defensive numbers in those recent fights have been exceptional, absorbing minimal damage while controlling range with precision.
Aguilar's submission game is real, but it only matters if he can get Sumudaerji down consistently, which is far from guaranteed. If the fight stays on the feet for the bulk of three rounds, the volume and accuracy numbers paint a clear picture, and Sumudaerji's striking should be too much for Aguilar to handle.
Why Jesus Aguilar Will Win
Jesus Aguilar has a clear path to victory built around pressure, wrestling and opportunistic submissions. He excels at crashing the pocket, forcing clinch exchanges and chaining takedown attempts together until he eventually drags opponents to the mat, which directly attacks Sumudaerji’s most obvious vulnerability: defensive grappling.
Once grounded, Aguilar is ruthless with top control and hunting for the neck or limbs. Sumudaerji has been caught before when opponents forced him to grapple for extended periods, and his long, striking-focused frame makes it harder to scramble quickly under a strong top player.
Aguilar also carries genuine power for flyweight, especially in short hooks and overhands when opponents are backing straight up. Sumudaerji’s tendency to retreat on the fence with his chin high can become a serious liability if Aguilar times a level change into strikes.
Cardio and mentality favor a grinding style as well. Over three rounds, Aguilar can bank minutes with control time, mat returns and clinch work, even if he eats a few jabs and kicks on the way in. If he avoids big counters early, the accumulation of wrestling pressure and submission threats gives Aguilar a very real chance to break Sumudaerji and score a late finish or clear decision.
Final Sumudaerji-Jesus Aguilar Prediction & Pick
This flyweight matchup sets up as a classic clash between long-range striking and compact grappling pressure. Sumudaerji holds advantages in height, reach and technical kickboxing, which should allow him to dictate the fight at distance in the early going. If he establishes his jab and calf kicks, Aguilar will be forced to navigate a difficult entry every time he tries to close the gap. Clean straight shots down the middle could quickly discourage sloppy level changes and make Aguilar second-guess his wrestling.
However, Aguilar’s best weapon is persistence. He only needs a few successful entries to change the complexion of the fight, and once he gets to the hips or clinch, his chain wrestling and control can start to sap Sumudaerji’s cardio and explosiveness. Over three rounds, this likely becomes a question of who can impose their game for longer stretches. If Sumudaerji keeps his back off the fence and maintains his footwork, his volume and accuracy at range should win minutes.
The pick, though, leans slightly toward Aguilar. His ability to turn striking exchanges into scrambles, accumulate control time and threaten submissions points to a gritty decision victory once the fight inevitably hits the mat.
Final Sumudaerji-Jesus Aguilar Prediction & Pick: Jesus Aguilar (+200), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)
