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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 107 as we head towards the Lightweight (155) Division for this next bout. Ultimate Fighter alumni Kurt Holobaugh will take on Contender Series alum Jordan Leavitt in an exciting scrap. Check the UFC odds series for our Holobaugh-Leavitt prediction and pick.
Kurt Holobaugh (21-9) has gone 2-6 throughout his UFC stints since 2013. He's a former winner of The Ultimate Fighter 31 and has since gone 1-2 since climbing his way back onto the UFC roster. He'll be in a short underdog spot against another veteran talent. Holobaugh stands 5-foot-11 with a 70-inch reach.
Jordan Leavitt (11-3) has gone 4-3 inside the UFC since 2020 and will be returning to action for the first time since 2023. He's split his last four bouts at 2-2 and comes into this one following a loss, so he's hoping to get back on the winning track as the betting favorite. Leavitt stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 107 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 107 Odds: Kurt Holobaugh-Jordan Leavitt Odds
Kurt Holobaugh: +180
Jordan Leavitt: -218
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Kurt Holobaugh Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Alexander Hernandez – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 10 SUB
Kurt Holobaugh saw a tough loss in his most recent bout, but he ran into a very motivated opponent in Alexander Hernandez and couldn't get over the athletic disadvantage during that fight. Still, as always, Holobaugh displayed great toughness and an ability to march forward despite sustaining damage. His constant forward pressure will be a huge focal point for him in establishing his dominance over Leavitt.
While Jordan Leavitt is usually looking to grapple against opponents, Kurt Holobaugh will offer a very difficult look thanks to his own submission offense. Holobaugh is very strong when it comes to keeping opponents on the ground, and his ability to lock submissions quickly will be a constant threat.
In order to win this fight as the underdog, Holobaugh will have to be the aggressor and cut Leavitt's movement off by walking him towards the fence. While he may be at another slight speed disadvantage, Holobaugh is certainly the heavier hitter if he's able to land flush on his opponent. Expect him to also initiate the clinch situations as he tries to tie his opponent up.
Why Jordan Leavitt Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Chase Hooper – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Jordan Leavitt lost a quick bout to Chase Hooper during his last appearance in November 2023, and it'll certainly be interesting to see how he's evolved as a fighter since then. He had to withdraw from a previous fight in 2025, so the hope is that he's healthy and ready to make a return to the cage. He's always been known for his sneaky offense and can certainly stun Holobaugh with a slick submission if he's able to take the fight to the ground.
One of Leavitt's greatest strengths is his able to bounce around the cage and change his direction. It allows him to throw strikes from awkward angles, and he's been able to stun opponents in the past with his high head kicks. With how long he's been on the shelf, he'll certainly be looking to display some new techniques and impress as the betting favorite in his return.
Expect Leavitt to keep his output high throughout this fight as he's typically very strong in stringing punches together and keeping his opponents from closing the distance. He works much more effectively at range, and if he's able to keep Holobaugh on the end of his punches, he should be able to have to upper hand throughout this fight.
Final Kurt Holobaugh-Jordan Leavitt Prediction & Pick
Jordan Leavitt is making a long-awaited return to action after almost two years outside of the cage, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles someone like Kurt Holobaugh, who's been much more active as of late. Leavitt possesses all the physical tools and will be looking to pick-and-pop his way towards a win. Kurt Holobaugh is much more simplistic in his approach and will waste no time in closing the distance, grabbing hold of Leavitt, and bringing this fight to the ground.
While Jordan Leavitt has the better striking arsenal behind him, I expect Holobaugh's no-frills style to give him some trouble throughout this one. Holobaugh is also very tough to deter from his forward pressure, and if Leavitt isn't ready to meet him with resistance, he could be in for a long night. Let's take a chance with the betting underdog during this fight in Kurt Holobaugh.
Final Kurt Holobaugh-Jordan Leavitt Prediction & Pick: Kurt Holobaugh (+180)
